Magnus vs Hikaru - match analysis

What a match! Magnus Carlsen vs Hikaru Nakamura for the 2022 Speed Chess Championship. What follows is match recap and analysis you may not find elsewhere. It was a match for the ages, with the two best players head to head in a championship final. Not only that, but after a big 4 point lead by Hikaru early on, the match was dead even after the 23rd game.

This was an amazing display with both players combining for 89.9% accuracy over all games, over 86% even for bullet. However, the story I saw was not accuracy so much as blunders. I'm using first names mostly, but I have the utmost respect for Mr Nakamura and Mr Carlsen. And whenever you see blunder here, it is superGM blunder, not the blunder of mere mortals like me (mostly).

Before we get to that, some meta-analysis: In terms of openings, anyone familiar with top-level chess won't be surprised to hear that the most-used openings were Berlin (4) and Marshall (4). Thanks to chess.com game archive for this information. In addition, Game 17 saw the two play 16 moves for a draw. Hikaru played at 99.5% accuracy. Magnus 16 moves total, of which, 8 were book moves, 7 were rated Great, and one was rated Brilliant by the chess.com engine. Anyone familiar with Magnus Carlsen won't be surprised to see the Open Catalan in the second tier with 3 uses, along with Queen's Gambit (3 declined, 1 accepted).

Of all the games, I identified four as highlights. Game 17 was previously mentioned. In game 9, Hikaru was winning, but blundered a draw and almost a loss. It's an interesting look at how close these games are, and how the Sicilian requires precise play. Game 14 saw Magnus in his comfort zone in the Open Catalan before, to the disbelief and horror of all concerned especially commentator GM Robert Hess, he blundered his bishop. No combo. No plan. Just a blunder any of us could make. He's blundered worse to Hikaru, but in my opinion, this blunder was the tone of the entire match. That one move notwithstanding, Magnus is still probably the best ever, and he showed us that in game 16. He played what was, depending on how it's counted, a 12-move series of moves and exchanges to get a winning position. Look up that combo if you haven't seen it already. Lastly, Hikaru had his troubles of course, playing a wrong move order in Game 23. This was no mortal blunder. Making a move from a position any of us mortals would have been proud of, Hikaru lost the game and Magnus pulled even with what would be just 5 more bullet games to play.

Stepping back to the big picture - what seems to stand out most is costly mistakes. Recall the World Championship last year - Magnus versus Ian Nepomniachtchi. That match was one of perfect play from both sides, with Magnus playing perfecter, at least in the beginning. A mistake on move 130, that's 1-3-0, after 5 brilliant and precise games was the first break in years of Traditional championships. Things went badly after that for Nepo, and who can blame him? But the story in this championship was different.

The play was stellar of course, but with 17 decisive games out of 28, we have to agree that mistakes were made. However, some wins involved solid play with one player maneuvering to advantage. But several games were more of one player losing than the other winning. In my estimation, Magnus blundered a draw in games 2 and 4. Magnus blundered a loss in games 14, 20, and 24, a pawn in 2 games and a full bishop in Game 14. Hikaru blundered a draw in Game 13 after a masterful opening, and blundered a loss in Game 23 as explained earlier. Hikaru blundered a draw in Game 9 as well and, in the same game, arguably blundered a loss which Magnus did not see. In Game 19 Magnus blundered a loss but Hikaru didn't see it. This analysis accounts for missed opportunities like this. Also, in Game 8 Magnus technically blundered, but Hikaru had to find a Brilliant reply to pull out the win. Depending on how we count, that's maybe 5 for Magnus versus 2 for Hikaru. It's a significant population of mistakes among many decisive games.

By no means did we witness bad play, but computer analysis, not my meager ability, shows mistakes for magnus to be more prevalent and costly and those of Hikaru. And that tells the story of this match not to be so much strong play from both as strong play pock-marked by decisive errors from Magnus.

But in the end, congratulations and a heartfelt thank you to Magnus and Hikaru for once again gifting humanity with thrilling and world class chess.

Summary of every game

Game 1: 5min; Hikaru--Marshall; accuracy: 98.7 vs 98.6
Full game draw (highlight: 22.Bf3+!! (Magnus))
result: draw / H+0
Game 2: 5min; Magnus--King's Indian; accuracy: 84.6 vs 84.8
Magnus winning but 2 blunders created draw
result: draw / H+0
Game 3: 5min; Hikaru--Queen's Gambit Accepted; accuracy: 96.8 vs 97.2
Full game draw lost on time
result: Hikaru / H+1
Game 4: 5min; Magnus--Open Catalan; accuracy: 96.2 vs 96.2
Hikaru was stumbling but Magnus blundered draw
result: draw / H+1
Game 5: 5min; Hikaru--Indian; accuracy: 89.5 vs 81.9
Solid win, crux move 18. Ng5!!
result: Hikaru / H+2
Game 6: 5min; Magnus--Berlin; accuracy: 93.4 vs 93.1
Even play; moves repeated
result: draw / H+2
Game 7: 5min; Hikaru--King's Indian; accuracy: 81.5 vs 78
3+ blunders each
result: Hikaru / H+3
Game 8: 5min; Magnus--Open Catalan; accuracy: 88.6 vs 95.4
Magnus blundered into a brilliant checkmate
result: Hikaru / H+4
Game 9: 5min; Hikaru--Sicilian Najdorf; accuracy: 81.5 vs 81.2
Hikaru winning but blundered draw (lucky not to lose)
result: draw / H+4
Game 10: 3min; Magnus--Queen's Pawn Symmetrical; accuracy: 92.4 vs 84.6
solid win for Magnus
result: Magnus / H+3
Game 11: 3min; Hikaru--Marshall; accuracy: 98.6 vs 98.2
full game draw
result: draw / H+3
Game 12: 3min; Magnus--Berlin; accuracy: 98.5 vs 98.8
full game draw
result: draw / H+3
Game 13: 3min; Hikaru--Ruy Lopez (15 moves); accuracy: 90.3 vs 90.9
Hikaru working toward win but blundered the draw
result: draw / H+3
Game 14: 3min; Magnus--Open Catalan; accuracy: 90.6 vs 96.2
Magnus pulled ahead then blundered bishop in 1
result: Hikaru / H+4
Game 15: 3min; Hikaru--French Tarrasch; accuracy: 90.2 vs 90.3
draw with inconsistent play from both
result: draw / H+4
Game 16: 3min; Magnus--Queen's Pawn Symmetrical; accuracy: 93.3 vs 83.4
Magnus plays 12 move combo to get a winning position 
result: Magnus / H+3
Game 17: 3min; Hikaru--Pirc Dragon; accuracy: 99.5 vs 100
Magnus played 16 moves: 8 book, 7 great, 1 brilliant move
result: draw / H+3
Game 18: 3min; Magnus--Queen's Gambit Declined; accuracy: 90.6 vs 83.9
Magnus played from ahead took advantage of blunder
result: Magnus / H+2
Game 19: 3min; Hikaru--Marshall; accuracy: 96.4 vs 96.6
Magnus blundered but Hikaru didn't capitalize
result: draw / H+2
Game 20: 1min; Magnus--Queen's Gambit Declined; accuracy: 85.2 vs 96.1
Magnus blundered a pawn
result: Hikaru / H+3
Game 21: 1min; Hikaru--Sicilian Kan; accuracy: 78.9 vs 81.7
Inconsistent game; both had winning positions
result: Magnus / H+2
Game 22: 1min; Magnus--Queen's Pawn Symmetrical; accuracy: 91.8 vs 83.8
Magnus played from ahead, took advantage of blunder
result: Magnus / H+1
Game 23: 1min; Hikaru--Marshall; accuracy: 81.4 vs 80.8
Hikaru was winning but played wrong move order and lost
result: Magnus / H+0
Game 24: 1min; Magnus--Torre; accuracy: 84.5 vs 93.4
Magnus blundered a pawn
result: Hikaru / H+1
Game 25: 1min; Hikaru--Berlin; accuracy: 91.8 vs 82.1
Solid win for Hikaru
result: Hikaru / H+2
Game 26: 1min; Magnus--Queen's Gambit Declined; accuracy: 87.7 vs 80.4
Magnus won as Hikaru ran out match time
result: Magnus / H+1
Game 27: 1min; Hikaru--French Tarrasch; accuracy: 92 vs 81.2
Solid win for Hikaru
result: Hikaru / H+2
Game 28: 1min; Magnus--Berlin; accuracy: 91.8 vs 86.5
Hikaru mostly stalling for time
result: Magnus / H+1