PCL Eastern Division Playoff Predictions
by David Pruess, manager
Following the same methodology as in this first post on the Pacific, here is my analysis of the top lineups in the Central Division and their playoff prospects. This post also includes Final Four picks!!
This analysis also yielded a few surprises, including: the Tbilisi Gentlemen, who have dominated their entire first PCL season, only have the *third* best lineup in... their Division!?!?!?! Also, that it turns out that is the same as saying they have the third best lineup in the entire league. The bottom teams in the division must be a bit worse than bottom teams in other divisions, since the East did not score the most points in the Battle Royales, but they have 3 teams that are on a level that only the Dallas Destiny can compete at.
1. Tbilisi Gentlemen
That's it. Simple, just like the Gentlemen like it. They only have 6 players, so you can't expect that they have any other lineups. Actually, if one of these top 3 GMs is unavailable, they can sub in Pantsulaia, and win just the same-- no wait, they are about to play matches against the Wizards and Eagles! Against any other team you could say they could play any three GMs they wanted + Volkovi, and win. But not against those two. The Gentlemen will have to bring their A game for these brutal Eastern Playoffs that will select the 2019 PCL Champion.
2. Armenia Eagles
The Eagles don't have tons of players either, but they have a few substitutions possible, other than their MVP Shant, who is absolutely needed for the Divisional Championship match in two weeks. Anna Sargsyan or Manukyan are each fantastic options on board 4 (though it brings things down slightly on paper, I'd favor Anna in the playoff matches, bc Manukyan has done great against other board 4s in the 10+2 of Battle Royale, but I think Anna is a greater threat to upset strong GMs in 15+2). They've made it this far with usually Andriasian and Martirosyan on 1+2, but actually they could upgrade the team to level 9000 by using more of Maghsoodloo and Ter-Sahakyan. In fact, to beat the Gentlemen (the only team they didn't beat, 8-8 in a regular season 4v4 match) in the Divisional Championship, they might need both!
3. Mumbai Movers
Looking at these lineups after Tbilisi and Armenia, they are underwhelming. They would be ok in the playoffs in the other three divisions, but here it looks like the Movers will be heavy underdogs. They probably need to play the exact Vidit-Ghosh-Sadhwani-Karavade lineup here, and hope that Vidit and Karavade who have so little PCL experience perform up to an expected level, in order to have a chance v. the Eagles. Or hope that Shant doesn't make it.
4. Moscow Wizards
This unheralded team can actually field the second best lineup in the entire league, and would be a favorite to make the Final 4 in another division!
The one time they put Nepo in the lineup, he didn't show up and cost them a penalty point. When they brought in a young talented Free Agent in Sanan Sjugirov, he sorta-sjtruggled. But whenever they played their hidden super-GMs, this team was as explosive as Dobrov's child-count. Basically, any legal lineup with Grigoriants and Dobrov (they have a couple more than I have shown) is super good!
Playoff Predictions
Tbilisi Gentlemen beat Moscow Wizards
I don't know if the Wizards will bring a top lineup. They are not at the top of the standings because Grigoriants and Dobrov have not played consistently. I do know the Gentlemen will bring a top lineup, because they have no other choice!! So, not seeing the lineups, I have to go with the Gentlemen.
Armenia Eagles beat Mumbia Movers
This shouldn't be too close... the interesting thing will be seeing what lineup the Eagles employ, to get a sense for whether they are ready to beat the Gentlemen and repeat as PCL Champions.
Eastern [PCL] Championship: Eagles beat Gentlemen
Finally, after 11 long weeks in their shadows, the Eagles will beat the Gentlemen and remind everyone that they are the defending PCL Champions, with the heart (and Sargsyans) needed to build a dynasty.
To understand this, let's go back to their drawn week 8 match. No Shant. The Eagles can't win without Shant. The Eagles did however use Ter-Sahakyan, and his 3-1 kept them from losing this match. The Eagles need to draw the same lessons from that match as I did: play Ter-Sahakyan. Play both Sargsyans. And don't play Zaven (1.5-2.5). Replace him with Martirosyan or Maghsoodloo, and the Eagles will overcome draw odds, Giga, Volkovi, and Jobava! Once they've overcome this hurdle, they need to send the Sargsyans to San Francisco to pick up their second PCL trophy.
Final Four Predictions
Eagles beat Archbishops
I've heard the Archbishops will be without Wesley So for the Final Four. That won't give them much of a chance to beat the Sargsyans!
Pandas beat Snowballs
This should be super close, super exciting, super fun! I think the Pandas have a bit more firepower than the Snowballs on boards 1-3, and should beat them, as long as one of Yu/Ding is available for the trip to SF. Both would make them clear favorites.
Championship: Eagles beat Pandas
Yu+Ding could make this super close. Maybe blitz over-time again like last year. But then the Pandas would be favored. So I'd say Eagles 8.5-7.5. Can't wait to watch a brother and sister playing a championship match side by side!!! May 4-5, in SF, I'll be there!!
