My Favorites For The FIDE Candidates Tournament

On April 4th, the long-awaited FIDE Candidates Tournament will begin. So today I've decided to tell my readers who my favorites are for the event.  Which player do I most want to win the tournament? And who do I "least" want to see win? Below, you'll find not only the answers to these questions but also the reasons why I'm supporting each player or not.

For those who don't know, the FIDE Candidates is the second most important chess tournament on the calendar today, only after the World Championship Match, and perhaps the most exciting for chess fans. It consists of eight of the best players in the world playing in a double round-robin format (2 games with reversed colors against each player) to decide who will challenge the reigning champion Ding Liren for the world crown.

Before we get to the important stuff, I want to make it clear that I have nothing against any of the players and will be very happy for the winner and sad for the others. I know how hard each of them has worked to get there, so regardless of who wins, I am sure it will be well deserved. But since we are talking about a sport and a competition, it is natural that I will have my preferences.

Please also note that I am neither an analyst nor a chess commentator, so this list is NOT a prediction. It is just about what I would like to see happen, no matter what the odds are. In the end, of course, you are free to share your own preferences and who you are rooting for.

So let's start with my list. Of course, it will be presented in descending order to keep the suspense until the end.

8) Ian Nepomniachtchi

If you want to know how to win the Candidates, ask this man. He has the perfect recipe and has done it twice. Unfortunately, the same is not true when it comes to winning the World Championship Match. Despite being an excellent player, Nepomniachtchi lost to Magnus Carlsen in 2021 and to Ding Liren in 2023.

In my opinion, however, he should rightfully have been declared World Champion in 2022 after winning the Candidates and the reigning champion Carlsen relinquished the title. Obviously, for commercial reasons, FIDE decided to hold the match between him and the runner-up Ding Liren. From my point of view, this was not the fairest decision, as it changed the dynamics of the tournament, since nobody knew whether Magnus would play the match months later or not.

Well, my protest is given, but coming to my reasons why he is my "less" favorite, it simply has to do with the fact that he has already been on the big stage twice. In both matches, he did not perform very well, especially in his first attempt against Carlsen, where he made many blunders after his first loss in game 6. It would not be so cool for the sport if we had a champion who had previously lost a match 7.5 - 3.5 without putting up much of a fight. In his second match, against Ding, he again blundered badly in game 12, something I do not expect from the big players in big moments.

On the one hand, it would be a great story of perseverance and dedication if he got there for the third time and finally won the title, but on the other hand, he already had his chance and did not take it, so I want to see other players fighting for the crown this time. Chess, like any other sport, needs some fresh air and new names at the top to keep the community engaged and excited about the games, and I think seeing Nepomniachtchi there for the third time might be kind of boring and more of the same.

7) Alireza Firouzja

It may be polemic and against the general preferences, but I swear I can explain why Firouzja is only 7th on my list. I recognize that he is a great player and certainly has what it takes to become a world champion. The trophy would undoubtedly be in good hands if that were to happen. However, there are two main factors that have brought him down, so I have to be honest and tell you.

The first is that Firouzja somehow "gave up" chess for some time to devote himself to his career in the fashion world. I have absolutely no problem with someone following their dreams, so if that was what he wanted, it is none of my business. But I believe that the best of the best in any sport has to be that great example of dedication to the task. We know he is not there by chance or luck, but to have a world champion who has not been fully focused on it cannot be good for the game and how it is seen around the world. It could give the impression of something not so serious, and the general unenthusiastic public might think that it does not require much or is not such a great achievement, which we all know is a lie.

But the most important reason is the tournament organized at the end of 2023 called "Race to Candidates" where he played against lower-rated players in a clearly rushed competition just to get some ELO points to qualify for this Candidates. Even though there was nothing against the rules and this particular attempt failed, it is still a moral issue. He won his spot later anyway, but I think it was bad and wrong of him to submit to such a thing.

And no, for me his case is not comparable to what Ding Liren did before the Candidates 2022. Ding played to get the minimum number of games required, in the context of a pandemic where his country was completely locked down for over a year. It is not a fair comparison.

6) Nijat Abasov

Nijat Abasov is by far the lesser-known player who will participate, and also the one with the lowest ELO rating, being the only one below 2700. Still, thank God we no longer have the disgrace that was the "wild card", where a player could simply be invited by FIDE or the organization to play in such an important event. Seriously, it was bizarre, who came up with this brilliant idea? I cannot accept that someone can participate in the strongest tournament in the world without doing anything other than receiving a letter and... Sorry, I lost my head. Let me get back to the text.

Abasov, unlikely others in the past, actually won his seat after playing an incredible FIDE World Cup where he reached the semi-finals, beating great opponents like Anish Giri, Peter Svidler, and Vidit Gujrathi. However, I have to say he is not in the same league as the other players and has very few chances to come out as the winner of such a strong competition. I admit that it would be very nice to see an underdog like him win, but in my opinion, he has already surpassed the general and maybe even his own expectations.

I will certainly be rooting for him to play great games, give his opponents trouble, and maybe even be the deciding factor by winning or drawing a key game against one of the main contenders in the final rounds, but in the end, what I want most is to see the best ones come out on top.

For this reason, and also because I like the other 5 players more than him, Abasov will be placed 6th on my list, which does not mean that I do not respect what he has done so far to reach this stage. Maybe if he can consistently repeat such a performance in more tournaments and increase his ELO in the next World Championship cycle, being among the elite players, I can root for him in 2026. For now, let us just say that he has already gone far enough.

5) Hikaru Nakamura

From the lesser known to the one who is perhaps the most famous and also the favorite of the general chess public. After many years of retirement and dedicating himself to chess streaming, mainly in online blitz and bullet games, Nakamura awoke from his hibernation a few years ago and came back as strong as ever. In 2022 he already played a great Grand Prix and qualified for the Candidates, where he finished 4th with a very decent and honorable performance against all those who doubted his sharpness for classic over-the-board games. Now he has the chance to prove himself again and maybe do even better than last time.

But not if it depends on Vanessa's wishes. Despite liking him a lot and recognizing his importance for chess popularity, Nakamura is not exactly my favorite to win the tournament. Not because I dislike him, on the contrary, I am a big fan, too. But in fact, if I put everything that is important to me at the moment on a scale, I believe that the remaining four players are above him and would make me happier if they won.

As some points in his favor, it would be very nice to see him show his skills and versatility in different environments and time controls, and maybe also to shut the mouth of a certain retired Russian player who keeps accusing him of cheating without having any idea of statistics. I would also be happy about the possible popularity chess could gain if this happens.

As some points against him, Nakamura is unfortunately not the best example when it comes to dealing well with losing, which makes me a little upset to think of him as a world champion. But that is not the main point. Besides, I think that like Nepomniachtchi, his time has already passed and I personally prefer to see a newer generation get there. Hikaru is already famous, respected, and idolized for his great work for chess away from the conventional board, so I would be happy if he gave others the chance to shine.

4) Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa

When I saw my first game of Praggnanandhaa, he was 12 years old, and the analyst, who if I am not mistaken was Agadmator, said that he was likely to become the world champion in the future. I remember when I heard that and thought something like "I will mark these words and remember them when it happens". Perhaps we are closer to that moment now? I think so, and for many people, he is one of the players with the best chances given his recent performances, although, in a tournament like the Candidates, any prediction is really just a shot in the dark.

Anyway, since he is already in the top half of my favorites, I would be very happy if he wins and has the chance to play for the World Championship. Praggnanandhaa is very dedicated to chess, focused, polite, has enormous potential, and will surely become even stronger in the future than he is now. And if you are wondering why he is only ranked 4th, it has precisely to do with that.

While he would be a deserving World Champion, I feel that he is not in his prime yet and will have many more opportunities and gain much more experience to try again in other chances. It would be great to win already now, but considering his age and growth curve, I think this year could be a very good opportunity for him to learn and become mentally stronger.

Again, this is not a prediction, but what I mean is that if he goes all the way now and wins, wouldn't it give the impression that it was "too easy"? Maybe a little disappointment could be good for his career. So on the one hand I hope that he plays great chess and shows his talent to the world, but on the other hand, I think that a title might be a bit too early for him. Maybe I am being hypocritical considering what I wrote above about Nakamura and Nepomniachtchi? Maybe, but that is exactly the fun part of expressing our opinion.

3) Dommaraju Gukesh

The other Indian prodigy is only one position above, so the arguments are actually very similar, and almost everything you read above about Praggnanandhaa applies to Gukesh as well. He is young, has great potential, I would love to see him come out on top and everything... but I think he will have other opportunities in the future and would prefer if he gains more experience by now. So let me focus on explaining why he is 3rd and not 4th.

What makes the difference between the two, for my personal taste, is related to two main factors. The first is that Gukesh played an outstanding Chess Olympiad in 2022, where he started with 8.0/8.0 and defeated big names like Alexei Shirov and Fabiano Caruana. It was widely believed that he could even finish with a score of 11/11, which would be out of this world. However, a painful loss to Abdusattorov later cost Team India the gold medal in the team competition. Nevertheless, Gukesh won the individual gold medal on board one at the tender age of 16. Doing something so impressive made me a fan of him and his game a bit above Praggnanandhaa. Therefore, he is one step ahead in my list of favorites.

Another great performance I watched from him was last year in the FIDE World Cup, where he reached the quarterfinals and lost only to Magnus Carlsen. It is true that Praggnanandhaa also played a great tournament and reached the final, but in the end, he also lost to Carlsen, so we will never know what would happen if they switched sides on the bracket.

Anyway, the truth is that both of them have very similar talents and are at very close stages of their careers. Moreover, a young Indian prodigy succeeding on the big stage could perhaps even be considered as another World Championship title for Viswanathan Anand, who has inspired and influenced not only both of them but also many other talented GMs who are exploding in the country right now. (There will be a text about it soon, stay tuned).

2) Fabiano Caruana

In the second position, the player who I honestly think is the one who most deserves to be crowned World Champion. Caruana has had a very successful and consistent career so far, and there is very little argument to deny that he is the second-best of his generation. Unfortunately, he had the bad luck to be a contemporary of Carlsen. Nevertheless, when he had the chance to play the World Championship match in 2018, he gave a great performance, losing only in the rapid game tiebreak.

Therefore, of all the contenders, he is the one who was closer to the great prize. In my opinion, Caruana's title would almost be the correction of a historical mistake. Maybe the fact that Carlsen has become tired of defending his position was a gift from the chess gods to him, so that he now finally has an "open road" to get what he undoubtedly deserves. While Caruana may not be on the same historical level as Fischer, Carlsen, or Kasparov, he certainly belongs in the room with many legendary world champions like Tigran Petrosian or Mikhail Tal.

Perhaps what is missing for him is to have his name eternalized in the list of world champions, so that he finally gets the full recognition he deserves. It would make my heart warmer to know that after so many years of playing excellent chess and being in the shadow of Carlsen, he has finally made it. Additionally, since that match in 2018, I have become a great fan of him, not only on the board but also off it, as when he commented on the world championship matches in 2021 and 2023 with a very good sense of humor, without forgetting to be technical and explaining his genius ideas so well.

Caruana being crowned would be a prize for him and for all chess lovers; a proof that hard work, perseverance, and consistency pay off, even if it takes longer than expected. No, I haven't forgotten that there is also a match against Ding Liren to be played, but the Candidates is the first step.

1) Vidit Santosh Gujrathi

But even though I think Caruana is the one who deserves it the most, I cannot go against my heart and not root for Vidit Gujrathi, the Indian talent who is so often forgotten due to the large number of younger players, but who has represented the country so well when the other prodigies were still dreaming of being among the elite. I am sorry that my reasons now might be too personal and not too rational, but I am just being honest.

As I said earlier, it would almost be like a new title for Anand if an Indian is crowned World Champion again. But while the other two will certainly have many more Candidates to play, Vidit may be in his prime right now and can show the world what he is capable of. Since he is already older, there is a chance that this is his only opportunity, so I really hope that he does well, winning or not. I know the odds are not in his favor, but his performance at the Grand Swiss was outstanding and even though he is not the main contender, I am sure he can beat anyone if he has a good day.

He is a chess lover in exactly the way I like to see. Like the legendary Anand, Vidit is a gentleman and always seems to be smiling and having fun, be it in victory or defeat. His very respectful reaction after losing to Abasov in the World Cup and his great happiness after securing his place through the Grand Swiss made me choose him as my favorite to win this year.

Besides that, India already deserves another world champion, given its incredible number of GMs and elite players. Anand deserves to have his legacy honored and carried on by the new generation. And finally, Vidit deserves it because he was always sort of left out, treated as someone less talented than the youngsters, but he did not give up or let himself down and now has a chance to make history in the prime of his career.

Conclusion:

This time I do not have much to say in the conclusion, because everything I wanted to write is already in the paragraphs about each of the players. So I would just like to ask you about your preferences and who you are rooting for in this tournament.

Please let me know in the comments section below, and also write down your reasons why you picked that player as your favorite. Of course, everyone is welcome to disagree with me and my choices, but please remain respectful.

After all, what I want is what I believe we all want: that this FIDE Candidates 2024 is full of great games, exciting battles on the board, brilliant moves, and a lot to teach us. For all those who will be watching, I wish you a lot of fun and that your favorite player does well. In the end, we, the chess fans, are the real winners!