Time Odds Don't Work. Here's Why.

You have probably seen strong players like Hikaru or Magnus playing weaker opponents with just a minute on their clock compared to 10 or 5 for their opponent. Their ability to win these games despite being down so much time, amazes us. But do time odds really make the game fair or even close to fair? How much of an advantage are time odds really? 

Time to Think

One of the first misconceptions we can make about time odds is about how much time the stronger player has.  If we have a game where one player has 5 minutes and the other has just 1, our first reaction might be to think that the stronger player only has a minute to come up with all their moves in the game. However, one part that is often forgotten about is that they can think during the opponents turn. While the stronger player will still have to react to whatever move their opponent makes, they will have had time on their opponents move to prepare responses to many of the candidates moves in the position. This can often lead to a predicament for the player with more time. If they rush their moves, then they are stuck playing bullet vs a stronger player. But if they take their time, they give their opponent more time to think as well. 

Skill > Time

Far too often are there vast rating gaps in matchups that are supposed to be fixed by time odds. Is a 1500 really going to beat Hikaru even if Hikaru only has one minute? Even in bullet chess Nakamura would find moves that most of us would take 10 minutes to find. Time odds fail to account for the sheer gap in calculation and tactical ability that comes with a rating gap.  Perhaps time odds would be more fair in the case of gaps in rating by around 200-300 points where the level of play by both players is close enough that time odds would make a difference. However, with many matchups the scales are tipped well in favor of the stronger player. 

The Next Move

With all this being said, I don't think that time odds should be phased out entirely. I think that other forms of odds should be given a bit more credibility. Things like piece odds or positional odds make for a more fair game and also a game that is more entertaining. They force the stronger player to figure out awkward positions and make them weigh trading pieces. It requires a sort of pesky, playing for tricks type of play that can be very entertaining. While some will still argue the clock should give the odds, I think it's time to move on.

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God Bless!