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What Opening Should You Play According To Science - Black

What Opening Should You Play According To Science - Black

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NM MapleDanish
Staff
| 17

So I'm doing some science over here. Don't mind me.

I've gone big brain on my copy of Chessbase and I created a set of games where black is 2700+, white is lower rated, and black wins.

My hypothesis is that the SuperGM will choose an opening that is reasonably sound but still provides good winning chances.  The 2700+ player will most certainly avoid lines that have forcing draws, but probably won't play anything completely unsound since their opponents are still masters.

I believe that the most popular lines will be the so called 'holy grail'.  Will we find variations where black is fairly safe and sound but can still play for a win?

Here are the results!

vs. 1.e4

vs. 1. d4 

Conclusion(s)
It's clear to me that when the black pieces are played by a SuperGM who is facing a lower rated opponent that the SuperGM favours opening variations that have very few forcing lines.  I can't believe how quickly I ran out of useful data, especially against 1. d4.  More specifically, we've seen that the Najdorf and the Nimzo are both exceedingly popular in 'would really prefer to win' situations.  Getting 'out of book' organically in non-forcing positions was clearly the key decision making factor in the SuperGMs opening.
If you are looking for a repertoire that will serve you well for your entire chess career, and that you can play without worrying if your opponent prepared something special for you, I believe you can and should begin with the Sicilian Najdorf and Nimzo Indian.
What do you think the best opening is when black wants to play for a win? Let me know in the comments!

MapleDanish
NM Matt Nicholson

"The ability to work hard for days on end without losing focus is a talent. The ability to keep absorbing new information after many hours of study is a talent." - Garry Kasparov