A Prediction Challenge

Hi everyone! I came across this tweet from the Grand Chess Tour twitter account and of course I'm always up for a challenge when it comes to predictions. (Hint: I have Carlsen tying his all time record in the July 2019 rating list.) Here are my predictions for what Carlsen's rating will be after the Croatia Grand Chess Tour event and who he will beat to get there.

• vs. Giri

Anish Giri might not be Carlsen's toughest OTB opponent these day, but he is doing well in the Twitter fight (especially after Carlsen broke Giri's record among top players of most consecutive draws).

2019 Games (Courtesy 2700chess)

A draw is pretty likely since ~82% of Carlsen and Giri's games are draws, also according to 2700chess and Carlsen tends to have slow starts. Their last rated game was a win for the Norwegian, but the tournament it was played in, the Gashimov Memorial, was Giri's worst classical tournament in a while.

Rating Change: -1.3

New Rating: 2871.2

• vs. Anand

Former World Champion Viswanathan Anand and Current World Champion Magnus Carlsen have quite a history, dating back to the 2013 World Championship Match where the Norwegian dethroned the Indian.

2019 Games (Courtesy 2700chess)

So, Carlsen has a record of two wins, two draws, and no losses against Anand this year in classical and four wins, three draws, and no losses including rapid and blitz. It should also be noted that Carlsen took down his former rival in the Armageddon tiebreaker after their draw in Norway Chess. Using this data, a Magnus win seems pretty safe here.

Rating Change: +3.5

New Rating: 2874.7

• vs. Caruana

Here we go again with one of the most important and anticipated matches for the past year or so between the two players of the 2018 World Chess Championship. Carlsen will be looking for revenge for his Armageddon loss to Fabiano Caruana in Norway Chess.

2019 Games (Courtesy 2700chess)

Again, we have a small sample size to deal with, but a draw is a pretty good bet as their head to head score is two draws and one win for Magnus if rapid and blitz is included. This also means Carlsen and Caruana's last 15 classical games have all been draws.

Rating Change: -0.8

New Rating: 2873.9

• vs. Mamedyarov

'The Mozart of Chess' vs. 'The Street Fighter' will be an exciting game as Shakhriyar Mamedyarov, true to his nickname is always up for a fight.

2019 Games (Courtesy 2700chess)

Carlsen's record against Mamedyarov (1W, 2D, 0L) or with speed chess (2W, 2D, 0L) is decent, but probably not enough for him to be favored to defeat the fighter on the street in Zagreb.

Rating Change: -1.4

New Rating: 2872.5

• vs. Karjakin

Here is yet another World Championship rematch as the Russian Sergey Karjakin attempts to repeat his success, having taken the early lead in that match. However, Carlsen will be prepared to take on his rival in Zagreb, so he is the favorite in this matchup.

2019 Games (Courtesy 2700chess)

Karjakin might be the top player with the worst score against Carlsen, particularly of late, with one loss and zero wins/draws against the World Champion this year and 4 losses and 2 draws. In other words, the perfect situation for a Carlsen win.

Rating Change: +3.3

New Rating: 2875.8

• vs. Nakamura

The Japanese-American and speed chess superstar Hikaru Nakamura will attempt to overcome the odds and beat Carlsen who he has a very negative score against.

2019 Games (Data Courtesy 2700chess)

Nakamura is the only player in this field who has yet to face the Norwegian this year in classical (2 draws, 1 win and 0 losses for Carlsen in rapid and blitz) However, 'Naka' is notorious for losing to Carlsen from winning or drawn positions, so I am picking a Magnus win.

Rating Change: +3.4

New Rating: 2879.2

• vs. Nepomniachtchi

The newly minted Russian #1 Ian Nepomniatchchi will take on childhood rival Carlsen (they're the same age, so they played several youth championships together) and attempt to defend his amazing 4 wins and no losses against the World Champion in classical.

2019 Games (Courtesy 2700chess)

With only one classical game ending in a draw (three and one loss for 'Nepo' if you count rapid and blitz), it seems like draw is a pretty safe bet.

Rating Change: -1.4

New Rating: 2877.8

• vs. Ding

The solid Chinese player Ding Liren has an even score against Carlsen with 7 draws and no wins for either player. Will he be able to maintain that in Zagreb?

2019 Games (Courtesy 2700chess)

Carlsen's three draws against Ding (nine if you include rapid and blitz) should continue to hold up as this will be a tough pairing for the World Champion.

Rating Change: -1

New Rating: 2876.8

• vs. Aronian

Magnus Carlsen and Armenian #1 Levon Aronian tend to play fighting chess, which creates interesting battles and many decisive games.

2019 Games (Courtesy 2700chess)

Unfortunately, there is a slightly smaller sample size here, but Carlsen still has a plus score of 1 win, 1 draw, and no losses or 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, including rapid and blitz. This result is kind of a tossup and I think it will depend on what point in the tournament it takes place as Carlsen might win if he's on a roll or it might be a draw should it be an early pairing, as Carlsen tends to have slow starts. However, I'll go for a draw and we'll have to wait and see what happens.

Rating Change: -1.7

New Rating: 2875.1

• vs. Vachier-Lagrave

Maxime Vachier-Lagrave may not have beaten Carlsen in classical yet this year, but he has done so in blitz. Three times. Carlsen will be seeking revenge for MVL taking the #1 spot in blitz.

These two have had several decisive results with one win and one draw for Carlsen, but 2 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses if rapid and blitz are included. I think Carlsen will fight for a win as he usually does well towards the end of the tournament.

Rating Change: +3.7

New Rating: 2878.8

• vs. So

Wesley So is going to be trying for a second classical win against the World Champion after his first last year in Stavanger.  So is the second youngest player in the field, only slightly older than Giri.

With one draw (three and a win with speed chess) for Magnus, a draw seems likely. However, he usually closes out tournaments well, so I'm going for a win for the Norwegian.

Rating Change: +3.4

Final Rating: 2882.2