World Championship Information

After a short hiatus, I'm back for my next blog about the World Championship, which kicked off today in London. I am going to break things down based on the following:

• The Players
• The Games
• The Odds

Magnus Carlsen

Courtesy Magnus Carlsen via Twitter

Carlsen's first rise to a high level was back in 2000, at the age of 9. Carlsen rose from 900 to 1900 this year. Carlsen was working closely with GMs Simen Agdestein and Torbjorn Ringdal Hansen, two of Norway's strongest players. Carlsen played in the Norwegian Junior Team Championship, scoring 3.5/5, a decent score for his strength. Carlsen continued to rise to the very top until he started playing some of the most prestigious events in 2002. First, he placed 6th in the European Under 12 Championship, behind other strong players like Ian Nepomniatchchi.

Courtesy Pinterest

Only a couple months later, he tied for first with Nepomniatchchi himself. Nepomniatchchi and Carlsen ended up in a rivalry at a young age, which is one of the reasons why Nepomniatchchi has a 4-0 score against Carlsen in their decisive games. Only a year later, Carlsen achieved his final IM norm to win the title. He finished in 3rd place, among the ranks of Sergei Zhigalko, Zaven Andriasyan, Maxim Rodshtein, and other 2600+ grandmasters to be in the European Under 14 Championship.

Courtesy TheChessWorld

Carlsen also took 9th in the World Youth Championship, with similar scores to Maxime Vachier-Lagrave, Wang Hao, and many strong players of that generation. Carlsen's first major non-youth tournament was the Corus Chess Tournament Group C (which is now known as Tata Steel). Carlsen won with a score of 10.5/13, scoring a 2702 performance rating, even higher than the performance rating of the winner of the B section. Because of Carlsen's performance and his brilliant game against Sipke Ernst, Lubomir Kavalek called Carlsen the 'Mozart of Chess' in the Washington Post.

Courtesy ChessGuru via Youtube

Carlsen finished in a distant 7th in the B section in 2005, despite making upsets against Ivan Cheparinov and top seed Predrag Nikolic. Going back to his Group C victory, Carlsen scored his first GM norm with this win. He achieved his second norm only a month later in the Aeroflot Open. In March 2004, Carlsen famously defeated former world champion Anatoly Karpov in a blitz tournament. In the rapid knockout section, he drew another world champion Garry Kasparov before losing to him and getting knocked out of the tournament in the second game.

Courtesy This Week In Chess

Carlsen picked up his final GM norm in the Dubai Open, which made him the second youngest grandmaster ever (behind Sergey Karjakin's amazing record which still holds more than 15 years later). Carlsen also played in the 2004 FIDE Knockout World Championship. However, he was narrowly eliminated in Round 1 by Sergey Karjakin. In 2005, Carlsen defeated Zurab Azmaiparashvilli, Joel Lautier, and Vladimir Malakhov among others in the World Cup.

Courtesy 2005 FIDE World Cup Official Site

He finished 10th, which qualified him for the 2007 Candidates Tournament. He played in the Corus Group B Tournament again, this time getting a tie for first with Alexander Motylev. Carlsen had a flurry of good results including knocking out Viswanathan Anand to win the Glitnir Blitz Tournament, getting a 2820 performance rating in the Chess Olympiad, and getting second in the Biel Chess Festival, behind Alexander Morozevich, and being the best scorer in the Rising Stars vs. Experience match. In 2007, Carlsen finished in an amazing second place in the Linares chess tournament, despite being the bottom seed.

Courtesy Wikimedia Commons

Earlier, I mentioned that Carlsen qualified for the 2007 Candidates Tournament. He narrowly lost to Levon Aronian on blitz tiebreaks after their match was tied in the classical and rapid portions. Carlsen won the Biel Grandmaster Tournament, defeating Alexander Onischuk in a playoff for the title. This result saw Carlsen make 2700 and break into the top 20 in the world.

Courtesy Chess Diagonals

The world champion to be finished 3rd-4th in the 2007 World Cup, taking down Leinier Dominguez Perez and Michael Adams among others. In 2008, Carlsen played in Group A of the Corus Chess Tournament, finishing tied for first with Levon Aronian and got second in the Linares Chess Tournament. Carlsen got a tie for first with Vugar Gashimov and Wang Yue in the first event of the 2008-9 Grand Prix. He controversially dropped out from the tournament, shaming FIDE for changing the format dramatically in the middle of a World Championship cycle. He went on to get second place in both the World Rapid Championship and the Bilbao Masters. Carlsen also won the Nanjing Pearl Spring tournament with 8/10, getting a 3002 performance rating.

Courtesy Chessbase

This also put Carlsen over 2800, just 9 points away from World #1 Veselin Topalov. He won the World Blitz Championship as well as the prestigious London Chess Classic, which put him in the #1 spot for the first time. Over the next 9 years, Carlsen has reached even higher heights. He declined to play the Candidates Tournament for the 2012 World Championship, but finally agreed to play the Candidates Tournament for the 2013 World Championship. Carlsen won and went on to play Viswanathan Anand in Chennai.

Courtesy Chessbase

He handily defeated Anand with 3 wins, 7 draws, and no losses. Because of the dominating performance, the final two games weren't played. Carlsen's rematch against Anand in 2014 in Sochi was less one sided as Carlsen got 3 wins, 7 draws, and 1 loss. Carlsen's win in the penultimate round meant that the last game wouldn't be played. Carlsen's next challenger was Sergey Karjakin, a young Russian who was rising quickly. However, he was a surprising challenger, so many speculate that Carlsen underestimated Karjakin, who wasn't expected to do so well.

Courtesy Chess24

After 7 straight draws, Karjakin broke the curse with a win in Game 8. Many viewers were surprised and even thought Carlsen might be done for. However, Carlsen got a win in Game 10 to start the comeback. After two draws, the match went to rapid tiebreaks, which Carlsen won 3-1, including a brilliant queen sacrifice in the final game. Since then, Carlsen has won Bilbao 2016, the Isle of Man Chess Open 2017, the World Blitz Championship 2017, Tata Steel Chess 2018, Shamkir Chess 2018, and a tie for first in the Sinquefield Cup 2018 on the way to the his forth World Championship.

Fabiano Caruana

Courtesy Wikipedia

Fabiano Caruana grew up in the United States of America but decided to tour Europe and play for his parents's nation, Italy, to pursue a career in chess at the age of 12. Caruana rose very quickly as a youngster and got the grandmaster title towards the beginning of his European tour at the age of 14. Caruana won the strong Vlissingen Chess Tournament with a performance rating of 2715.

Courtesy Mida's Chess Corner

He faced several tough opponents, like former knockout world champion Rustam Kasimdzhanov. Caruana came in as the top seed of the 2008 Corus Chess Tournament Group C and didn't disappoint. He scored 10/13 with a 2696 performance rating. Caruana had the best individual performance in the Mitropa Cup, a team championship between 10 European nations.

Courtesy Chessdom

The young Italian player was beaten by the smallest of scores by former world champion Anatoly Karpov in the quarterfinals of the Cap D'Agde Rapid Chess tournament. Caruana scored 7.5/11 in the Chess Olympiad, beating several stars like Michael Adams and Viktor Korchnoi. His performance rating was 2696. Caruana won the Corus Chess Tournament Group B, of which he qualified for by winning the C section, which is mentioned earlier.

Courtesy Chessdom

Some of his most notable wins were against former world championship challenger Nigel Short, David Navara, and top seed Krishnan Sasikiran. Caruana got best personal performance in both the Russian Team Championship (where he played for Club 64, the runner-ups) and the Mitropa Cup once again. Caruana made his way to the fourth round of the 2009 World Cup before getting eliminated by the late Vugar Gashimov in rapid tiebreaks. Caruana's breakthrough in the top 20 was in 2012, after a lackluster two years. This was due to a three way tie for second with Magnus Carlsen and Teimour Radjabov in the Tata Steel Chess Tournament (formerly known as the Corus Chess Tournament).

Courtesy FreshmenMedia via Youtube

Caruana went on to win both the Reykjavik Open and the Sigeman Chess Tournament, which shot him up to #7 in the world. He also took second in the Tal Memorial behind Carlsen. Caruana's success continued with a win in the Dortmund Sparkassen Chess Meeting and second place in the Grand Slam Chess Final behind Carlsen. Caruana participated in the 2012-13 Grand Prix. In Tashkent, the second stage, he finished in a three way tie for fourth, a half point behind the leaders.

Courtesy This Week In Chess

Caruana got a tie for third with Ruslan Ponomariov in Zug, the third stage. He kept up the good results with a tie for second with Gata Kamsky in Thessaloniki, the fourth stage. However, a tie for first with Boris Gelfand in Paris, the final stage, saw Caruana just miss out on a spot in the Candidates Tournament by 10 points. This was the start of Caruana's hunt for a spot in the World Championship. Caruana's biggest performance that proved to the world his amazing strength was the 2014 Sinquefield Cup.

Courtesy USChessChamps

Caruana's famous 7 game winning streak was amazing as he beat five other elite players, including Magnus Carlsen and he even beat some of them twice. Caruana played once again in the Grand Prix. He got off to a good start, getting a tie for first in Baku, the first stage. Despite a somewhat disappointing four way tie for fourth, Caruana was still the leader after the first two stages. A three way tie for first in the final stage, Khanty-Mansiysk, put Caruana over the top and into the 2016 Candidates Tournament. After Anand, lost twice in a row, the spectators were at a loss for who could possibly challenge the Norwegian for the title. Anand seemed to be on his way to another rematch with a win against Veselin Topalov in Round 1, but he lost to Sergey Karjakin in Round 4, who was off to an amazing 3/4 start. Eventually, Levon Aronian caught up to Karjakin with a win against Hikaru Nakamura. It wasn't until Round 9 for there to be a major shift at the top, as Aronian lost to Anand, not only losing a tie for first place, but also launching Anand into a tie for first with Karjakin. A tumultuous final few rounds saw Karjakin, Anand, and Caruana switching leads until the final round, when Karjakin and Caruana went in tied for first. The two played each other in the last round, and a win for Karjakin secured him a coveted spot in the 2016 World Championship. Caruana had some good results leading up to the next Candidates Tournament; another shot at the title. Caruana, who had now permanently moved back to the United States of America and switched federations, won the US Chess Championship and played for Board 1 for the United States in the Chess Olympiad, which they won the gold medal in. However, a bad 2017 for Caruana meant that he might not necessarily qualify for the Candidates Tournament by rating. However, he was eliminated in Round 3 of the World Cup by Evgeniy Najer and it was unlikely that the (Russian!) organizers would pick Caruana as a wildcard. That being said, the worst case scenario for Caruana was that both Vladimir Kramnik and Wesley So surpassed the American. However, Kramnik was eliminated in the World Cup by Vassily Ivanchuk in the third round as well. Caruana finished well ahead of Vladimir Kramnik in the Isle of Man Open, beating him in the first round due to the randomized pairings. As if that wasn't enough, Caruana won the London Chess Classic, beating Ian Nepomniachtchi in a playoff for first. Caruana got off to a good start, dispatching his compatriot Wesley So in Round 1. The first big turning point of the tournament was Round 4, where Caruana played tournament leader Vladimir Kramnik, who was already on 2.5/3. Kramnik had an excellent position, but over pressed and lost, giving Caruana the sole tournament lead. Shakhriyar Mamedyarov caught up with Caruana in Round 6, but then lost it as Caruana defeated Aronian in Round 7. Caruana maintained the lead until Round 12, with Mamedyarov, Karjakin, and Alexander Grischuk chasing him closely. However, Caruana went down against Karjakin and there was a tie at the top with two rounds to go. Caruana clinched the title anyway with wins against Levon Aronian and Alexander Grischuk to finish off an amazing tournament with one small blip. Caruana went on to win the Grenke Chess Classic and Norway Chess ahead of Carlsen and tied for first with Carlsen and Aronian in the Sinquefield Cup on the way to his first World Championship.

The Games

Here are the results of the games with analysis by myself.

• Game 1 (0.5-0.5)

Opening

Middlegame

Endgame

• Game 2 (0.5-0.5)

Opening

Middlegame

• Game 3 (0.5-0.5)
• Game 4 (0.5-0.5)
• Game 5 (0.5-0.5)
• Game 6 (0.5-0.5)
• Game 7 (0.5-0.5)
• Game 8 (0.5-0.5)
• Game 9 (0.5-0.5)
• Game 10 (0.5-0.5
• Game 11 (0.5-0.5)
• Game 12 (0.5-0.5)
• Rapid Tiebreak (3-0 Carlsen)

The Odds

(Pre-Round 1 Odds)

I will give a short review of the predictions I made on what will go down. If you want an exact prediction, I think Carlsen will win with the White pieces as the first victory of the match, then Caruana will win with the White pieces, then Carlsen will win again with the White pieces at the end of the match. So, I think Carlsen will win the classical portion 6.5-5.5. As for the first game, I predict a draw.

(Pre-Round 2 Odds)

The big change is that Carlsen came very close to winning with Black. He also has a good score against Caruana with Black, so playing with the White pieces could be a bit awkward for him tomorrow. The main question is whether he will test Caruana in the Petroff, which is pretty unlikely. So, he might consider playing d4 instead. I will go with a draw, but I think Caruana will push Carlsen a little.

(Pre-Round 3 Odds)

It will interesting if Carlsen chooses the Sicilian again. He will get the black pieces again, which oddly seems to be an advantage in this match. However, I'm going to go with a draw again. This would be the third straight draw, similarly to Carlsen's match with Karjakin. Carlsen missed several chances for wins against Karjakin and he already has against Caruana in Round 1. I think Caruana will be more careful now, but we will see.

(Pre-Round 4 Odds)

Again, a draw is the most likely result, which is getting us closer and closer to the possibility of a rapid playoff for the title, like in the Carlsen-Karjakin match in 2016. Carlsen may avoid e4 again, because of Caruana's signature Petroff. At the same time, I think Carlsen has to challenge Caruana in his 'bread and butter' opening at some point to prove that he is really worthy of the title.

(Pre-Round 5 Odds)

The surprising scandal that took place before the previous round may shape Carlsen's rest day preparations. Caruana was depicted in a Today in Chess video showing Chessbase files. The clip clearly shows Caruana's preparation in the Petroff, Fianchetto Grunfeld, and Queen's Gambit Declined. The video also shows Caruana looking through a copy of Lev Alburt's book on Carlsen vs. Karjakin. We can assume that Carlsen's team is fiercely squeezing what they can from this video and I wouldn't be surprised if Carlsen scores his first win in Game 5 amidst of this unexpected turn.

(Pre-Round 6 Odds)

Carlsen has the White pieces, so it will again be a question of whether the Champion finally tests his challenger in Caruana's classic Petroff. I think this will be an exciting game and again I slightly favor Carlsen because this game is right in the middle of the World Championship.

(Pre-Rounds 7-12 Odds)

Honestly, more draws are quite likely as Caruana and Carlsen will each get two Whites. They will soon reach the record of the most draws in a row to start a match if they reach 9 draws in a row, breaking the record of Kasparov vs. Anand.

(Pre-Tiebreak Odds)

Carlsen is obviously the better rapid player and thus the favorite. However, former World Champion Garry Kasparov was skeptical of his decision to take a draw in Game 12 and called Caruana possibly the favorite because Carlsen had bad nerves.