QGA vs QGD

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KevinOSh

Oct 16, 2021

I just noticed in the master opening explorer QGA has a better win rate for Black than QGD

https://www.chess.com/openings/Queens-Gambit

I always thought the Queen's Gambit was one of the most sound gambits of all and that it was a mistake to accept it. How can this be explained? Is there a surprise psychological advantage of accepting the gambit. Are there really master chess players who play the Queen's Gambit but don't know how to play if it is accepted? Is it special opening preparation from Black with clever a novelty? What could explain it?

AunTheKnight

Oct 16, 2021

KevinOSh wrote:

I just noticed in the master opening explorer QGA has a better win rate for Black than QGD

https://www.chess.com/openings/Queens-Gambit

Maybe it’s because of the smaller sample size in the database?

DasBurner

Oct 16, 2021

Queen's Gambit accepted is a fine way to play. It's not objectively worse or better then the Queen's Gambit Declined, just different. Black is looking for more tactical, fast-paced play rather than the positional grinds of the QGD and Slav

QGA is only a mistake if you try to hold onto the pawn, as black is basically forced to give it up regardless of how much he tries to hold onto it (a4, b3 pawn breaks are very important in getting white compensation if black tries to forcibly retain the pawn with b5 and c6), which is why the pawn is often given back almost immediately after taking

It isn't just a sideline, so I can't really just give a few lines to describe the types of play you're going to get. Black usually just plays some combination of c5, a6, nf6, nc6, e6 etc etc. Normal Queen's Pawn moves anyway

DasBurner

Oct 16, 2021

AunTheKnight wrote:

KevinOSh wrote:

I just noticed in the master opening explorer QGA has a better win rate for Black than QGD

https://www.chess.com/openings/Queens-Gambit

Maybe it’s because of the smaller sample size in the database?

I wouldn't call 24,000 games a small sample size

AunTheKnight

Oct 16, 2021

DasBurner wrote:

AunTheKnight wrote:

KevinOSh wrote:

I just noticed in the master opening explorer QGA has a better win rate for Black than QGD

https://www.chess.com/openings/Queens-Gambit

Maybe it’s because of the smaller sample size in the database?

I wouldn't call 24,000 games a small sample size

DasBurner

Oct 16, 2021

then a smaller sample size doesn't explain the better win rate because the smaller sample size is still a large sample size

AunTheKnight

Oct 16, 2021

DasBurner wrote:

then a smaller sample size doesn't explain the better win rate because the smaller sample size is still a large sample size

Alright, good point.

But 75,000 games to 24,000? I mean, come on!

KevinOSh

Oct 16, 2021

Stats from the "Big Database" on another chess site

# of Games

Last Played

Winnings percentage
White / Draw / Black

2... e6

89,703

2021

41.2 %

34.2 %

24.6 %

2... c6

89,281

2021

37.9 %

39.2 %

22.9 %

2... dxc4

26,242

2021

39.1 %

37 %

23.8 %

This includes amateur games.

So this suggests Black does relatively better with QGD at the lower levels than at the master level. Still very drawish though.

AunTheKnight

Oct 16, 2021

KevinOSh wrote:

Stats from the "Big Database" on another chess site

# of Games Last Played Winnings percentage
White / Draw / Black 2... e6 89,703 2021 41.2 % 34.2 % 24.6 % 2... c6 89,281 2021 37.9 % 39.2 % 22.9 % 2... dxc4 26,242 2021 39.1 % 37 % 23.8 %

This includes amateur games.

So this suggests Black does relatively better with QGD at the lower levels than at the master level. Still very drawish though.

Interesting.

Stil1

Oct 16, 2021

#10

The QGA and the QGD are both relatively the same, in terms of quality.

If either of them perform better, statistically, then I'd say it's mostly a matter of the players who are handling them ...

If I had to guess: the QGA tends to pull the game quicker toward an endgame, which might favor the players who enjoy endgames more.

Some players, perhaps, might dislike early endgames, and may try to complicate things, unnecessarily, to avoid quick simplifications ...

sholom90

Oct 16, 2021

#11

Using chesstempo, and restricting the games to where both players were 2200+, we see the following top three responses for black on move two:

Move # White Win/Draw/Black Win
2...c6 64179 34.9% 45.5% 19.6%
2...e6 47917 36.1% 43.2% 20.7%
2...dxc4 16819 35% 44.3% 20.7%

So we see that all three get about the same results.

Data when both players are 2600+

2...c6 5611 26.7% 55.7% 17.5%
2...e6 2004 28% 55.1% 16.9%
2...dxc4 953 28.2% 56.7% 15.1%

AunTheKnight

Oct 16, 2021

#12

sholom90 wrote:

Using chesstempo, and restricting the games to where both players were 2200+, we see the following top three responses for black on move two:

Move # White Win/Draw/Black Win
2...c6 64179 34.9% 45.5% 19.6%
2...e6 47917 36.1% 43.2% 20.7%
2...dxc4 16819 35% 44.3% 20.7%

So we see that all three get about the same results.

Data when both players are 2600+

2...c6 5611 26.7% 55.7% 17.5%
2...e6 2004 28% 55.1% 16.9%
2...dxc4 953 28.2% 56.7% 15.1%

Thanks for the info, Sholom!

NikkiLikeChikki

Oct 16, 2021

#13

Kasparov beat up on Kramnik a few times accepting the gambit as black. Be like Garry: take that pawn. 🥳

Kapivarovskic

Oct 16, 2021

#14

So the old "best way to refute a gambit is to accept it" holds true then, eh?

sholom90

Oct 16, 2021

#15

NikkiLikeChikki wrote:

Kasparov beat up on Kramnik a few times accepting the gambit as black. Be like Garry: take that pawn. 🥳

OTOH, Garry as black faced Korchnoi three times as black. Garry never played KGA, but did play QGD three times -- drawing once and winning twice. Garry beat Korchnoi as white the only time Korchnoi played QGD as black.

Against Kramnik, Kasparov played QGA a few times -- with mixed results: wins, losses, and draws. But I think mostly draws. Further, most of those games, I think, were blitz and rapid.

FWIW

tygxc

Oct 16, 2021

#16

#15
In his youth Kasparov played the Tarrasch Variation of the Queen's Gambit Declined.
Then he played both Grünfeld and King's Indian Defence.
Then he abandoned the King's Indian Defence and chose the Queen's Gambit Accepted.

Kapivarovskic

Oct 18, 2021

#17

tygxc wrote:

Once he gets a little older and wiser he's gonna start employing the dutch

alphaous

Oct 18, 2021

#18

It just has a higher draw rate. Most players at my level will try to hold on to the pawn for dear life and that just isn't feasible. At the master level, White doesn't usually try to regain the pawn immediately but does so eventually. IMO Black doesn't get as much imbalance as in the QGD and Slav, where he can attack White's queenside more easily, but white has better attacking chances in those openings. They are all playable.

orlock20

Oct 18, 2021

#19

QCD has many forms. This is the Colle System turned into the QCD. According to chess.com's Stockfish, there are only a few ways to beat it. Mostly it's a win for white and sometimes a draw.

While humans are not that good, it does outperform many other openings when humans play it.