What on earth happened to Peter Leko?

Leko drew a title match in 2004, and around then also won all the big super tournaments (Linares, Wijk, Dortmund). A dozen years ago many would guess that Leko today would be World Champion or at least top five. He was born four years after Kramnik and Topalov, who both have been ranked #2 behind Carlsen fairly recently. But what happened?

In April 2003 Leko was 4th on the rating list, with the ten years older Anand just ahead on 3rd, but today Leko is more than 100 Elo behind Anand. In October 2008 Leko was still top 10 while Nigel Short was #85. Short was then 43 years old and Leko still in his 20s. Today Short is 52 years old and 15 places ahead...

In Biel Leko won his first game against an opponent in the 2400s, but it wasn't too impressive. His opponent spent too much time trying to find a way to win, and then blundered on the last move before the time control. Round 2 was back to "normal", with Leko making mistakes in the middlegame to lose against Ponomariov (who also has fallen out of the 2700 club).

At another site the question on what happened was answered with that he got married, but he married 17 years ago, long before his best results. And contrary to Kramnik, Anand, Kasparov, Radjabov, Topalov, Grischuk, Karjakin, Giri, Svidler etc he doesn't have any kids, so in that respect he has an "advantage" in that he can spend even more time on chess. But as he has been playing the last decade it is easy to forget how close he was to become World Champion.

This is a very good question! I have been desperately wondering about this myself for a long time. I've recently read an interview with his father-in-law and coach, Arshak Petrosian, who gives some insight: https://chess24.com/en/read/news/petrosian-on-talent-character-and-near-misses

And here's another interview, this time with Leko himself, about a 9 month (!) break he took from chess: http://www.chessintranslation.com/2011/08/leko-explains-his-break-from-chess/

But even after reading these I don't feel satisfied. Seriously, what on earth happened to Peter Leko?

He is still only 37 years old, but the last time he won something was nine years ago. In this year's European Championship Leko finished 90th, behind ten IMs and an FM. His latest super tournaments were Petrosian Memorial 2014 and Danzhou 2016, scoring a total of +0-3=13 in them. But it will be interesting to see where he ends up in Biel, where the opposition at least is modest enough for Leko to be ranked in the top half.

Another bad loss today, to Navara, and Leko is 27 places behind Nigel Short on the live rating list. If you had made a bet on that nine years ago, when Leko was 76 places ahead, you would probably have received a good odds...

Leko hasn't had any health problems like Kramnik or Gashimov or Tal etc, no long retirement periods like Kamsky, no children, no other main interests like Lasker (philosophy and maths) or Kasparov (politics), no "laziness" like for example Grischuk and Radjabov often have been accused of, hasn't spent lots of time writing like some other top players, and had no lack of invitations to top events (he played almost every Dortmund, Wijk and Linares for fifteen years).

It's a mystery how someone that scored so great results around age 20-25 can drop out of the top 70 already when 37. Radjabov reminded a bit of Leko development wise, but at least won a strong tournament recently and is top 20.

Everyone progresses, and degresses at different rates.  He getting close to 40, and maybe he is just on the downhill slide, maybe hedoesnt study as much, maybe he doesnt take chess as serious, maybe he has other issues going on.  Could be any number of things.  

Jacob Aagaard commented, "Peter Leko has three essential qualities (that I know about). He has a great opening repertoire, he is a greatly gifted technical player and a very nice guy. If he had a good understanding of dynamics as well, he would have been one of the greatest players of our time (rather than just one game away from being World Champion!)." Despite criticism that his style leads to drawish chess, his consistent style has seen him remain in the elite since he was a teenager and win multiple elite-level tournaments.

I think it's a great question that the OP asks.  Do you think GM Peter Leko would be offended if someone asked the question with complete sincerity?  He might be a little offended, but if he saw that the person asking the question wasn't trying to be mean, but was just curious (which in a way is a praise, "You were so great and talented! What happened?"), perhaps he would reflect and give a thoughtful answer.

Even if he were to say something like, "I just got tired, and I lost the desire necessary to compete at the highest levels" would be understandable.

I have wondered about it too, maybe his style of play didn't translate as well into the age of engine preparation as others ?

"If he had a good understanding of dynamics as well, he would have been one of the greatest players of our time"

"Our time" is a rather vague expression, just like "one of the greatest", but I suppose Aagaard means that he could have been an Anand or Kramnik. But they could just as well be included among the greatest players of all time, if one would consider a dozen players allowed in that group. Leko can't be far from being one of the greatest players of our time already as it is. Chessmetrics is biased towards modern players, but Leko on 30th of all time is still very high.

If Leko had retired after winning Wijk 2005, just after drawing the title match, I think he would be ranked as one of the greatest of our time without any question. But I guess he kind of played himself out of that list the last decade. It is difficult to rank him ahead of players like Topalov, Aronian and Ivanchuk career achievement wise today.

Style of play and desire might have something to do with it all, as SeniorPatzer and Graf_Nachthafen suggests. Leko played enormously many super tournaments very early. When he won Dortmund as a teenager it was a sensation, with Anand, Karpov, Kramnik and Topalov in the field. But it was already Leko's fifth Dortmund! He now has 18 Dortmund starts, and that in spite of not having participated the last three years.

Maybe playing that many top events for so many years works fine if you have the desire of a Kasparov or Carlsen, but if you don't want it just as much and have a dry style where you can't create winning chances as easily it is difficult to keep up with the elite. Maybe Leko needs an opening preparation advantage that he no longer can get, maybe others are better at using engines.

There was a game against Karjakin in Dortmund 2012, where Leko was white and the game followed a line where he had a well prepared novelty saved. But Karjakin had prepared for the novelty, and the whole game was within his preparation. Maybe it was just one of those things that happen now and then.

Drawmaster indeed, in for example Linares 2005:

Zug 2013, the meeting of the old and the new master :-)

Recently he has been commentating on chess24 and he was asked about something similar. He said that the main problem nowadays is that he is not getting invited on the very top tournaments. He said that he is still working very hard on his chess and he is staying updated with the newest theory and also he has prepared many and many good ideas in most openings. But the problem is that he has to play againts weaker opponents who basically don't go for the critical lines againts him and they force him to drawish positions. Meanwhile someone else on some supertournament uses some of his prepared ideas and he can't never use it anymore. So this is happening. He has the reputation of very solid player who draws most of his games, so he is not getting many invitations to supertournaments anymore.

"He said that the main problem nowadays is that he is not getting invited on the very top tournaments"

The problem the last years has been that he hasn't played well when he has had the chance against better opposition either. In Biel he has played two games against 2690+ players and lost both. In his previous super tournaments in 2014 and 2016 he was winless. It would be interesting to see him against the elite again, but there are many that want to play those events so difficult to get those invites now.

That's true. Many players are waiting for their chance. Navara has similar problems. And many other guys. So while the same guys every year are boosting their ratings in GCT, some other with close strength have to play tourney with IMs... this is life.

Leko's rating graph shows that he was very stable from about 2000-2016. His highest rating was 2763 in 2005, and until this year his rating was +2700. 

It's not that anything has happened to Leko, except younger players have gotten better. When that happened, he stopped getting invites to the big events and fell out of the limelight. 

In other words, nothing happened to Leko. The new generation of chess monsters happened to chess!

Well, if nothing happened to Leko less than nothing happened to Anand, Kramnik, Topalov, Gelfand, Ivanchuk etc the last dozen years...

The players you mentioned were either higher up the food chain (Anand, Kramnik, Topalov), or raised their game, at least for a while.

Maybe he just realized that chess is not important, you know, like sports and every other competitive leisure activity mankind has ever invented.  It's a diversion.  Only beta males who let their egos ride on games and sports think it's of actual value ...