What are the odds?

Sort:
llama36
mikekalish wrote:

So I've played roughly 500 games in the last 5 months or so. There are a few opponents I've played twice..... but there's one guy I've now played 6 times. With the millions of players on here, that seems "out there".   All my games are 60 min. rapid, and I have it set so I play opponents within 200 points of my rating. 
Is there some reason, beyond coincidence, that he and I get matched up so frequently?

Simply the fact that you don't play at random times during the day cuts it down quite a lot... or to put it another way, there are certain hours during which you never play chess... there are certain users you will never be matched with.

tygxc

@14
"it tells me that there are 12 million players in my group."
++ The group of rapid rated players. When you play 1 h/day, you cover only 1/24 of the pool.

"All my games are rapid / 60 minute games"
++ 60|0 is an uncommon time control. 10|0 is more popular. 15|10 is better for progress.
There is also 10|5, 20|0, 30|0. So your time control covers less than 1/6 of the pool.

"so is it the group of rapid players" ++ Yes, the group of rapid rated players.
Mind some are rapid rated, but play little rapid and more blitz / bullet.

"12 million can't represent the whole universe of chess.com players"
++ The whole universe of chess.com rapid rated players.

You are ranked #1947853, Percentile 83.5% of all rapid rated players.

Chan_Fry

I can't get paired with *anyone* at 10+5, and I assume it's because no one else is seeking that time control. So I assume 60+0 would be similar. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if you got the the same opponent many times in a row.

Knights_of_Doom

Too bad because 10+5 is perfect for me.

TheSwissPhoenix
chaotikitat wrote:
Jeffrey-SB написав:
dude0812 wrote:
mikekalish wrote:

So I've played roughly 500 games in the last 5 months or so. There are a few opponents I've played twice..... but there's one guy I've now played 6 times. With the millions of players on here, that seems "out there".   All my games are 60 min. rapid, and I have it set so I play opponents within 200 points of my rating. 
Is there some reason, beyond coincidence, that he and I get matched up so frequently?

I was paired with the same guy 6 or 7 times in a row on lichess. No, I was not sending him a rematch, nor he was sending me rematches. We just got paired 7 times in a row.

lichess has like 5 users so im not suprised

~35 thousand * average 

90000 in mornings 

Mike_Kalish
Chan_Fry wrote:

I can't get paired with *anyone* at 10+5, and I assume it's because no one else is seeking that time control. So I assume 60+0 would be similar. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if you got the the same opponent many times in a row.

I'm usually matched up within 15 seconds and in my 500 games have probably played 470+ different players. I usually play in the afternoon, Pacific time, roughly 11 PM to 3 AM GMT

Mike_Kalish

@22

"it tells me that there are 12 million players in my group."
++ The group of rapid rated players. When you play 1 h/day, you cover only 1/24 of the pool.

 

Not sure I agree.....  I don't play the same hour every day.  My games are anywhere between noon and 4 PM, to I would propose that I'm accessing at least 1/6 of the pool.....depending on when others play. If their games were spread randomly, I'd be accessing 100% of the pool, no?

chaotikitat

12 million rapid players is everyone that has ever played rapid 

Pegusu

@mikekalish, I’ve been matched with the same player after an hour. It’s like “Aw, c’mon, I JUST played you!”

Mike_Kalish
chaotikitat wrote:

12 million rapid players is everyone that has ever played rapid 

And you know that.....how?

JogoReal

I read about something called "Computer Cupid" but I am not sure if it works in this website or not.

chaotikitat
mikekalish написав:
chaotikitat wrote:

12 million rapid players is everyone that has ever played rapid 

And you know that.....how?

For the whole site daily it rarely gets much over 10 million games for every time control combined, the total amount of accounts is ~80 million if I remember right. A lot of those accounts were never actually used and there are many more inactive ones, although there are several hundred thousand daily users. With this I can’t know exactly but I can assume there aren’t 12 million people in your range 

Mike_Kalish
chaotikitat wrote:
 

For the whole site daily it rarely gets much over 10 million games for every time control combined, the total amount of accounts is ~80 million if I remember right. A lot of those accounts were never actually used and there are many more inactive ones, although there are several hundred thousand daily users. With this I can’t know exactly but I can assume there aren’t 12 million people in your range 

Sounds reasonable.

 

tygxc

@27
"My games are anywhere between noon and 4 PM, to I would propose that I'm accessing at least 1/6 of the pool."
++ So you would get matched to 1/6 of the subpool of 60|0 players around your rating.
If you switch to the more popular 10|0 and if you make your rating seek ranges wider,
then the odds of being paired with the same player would shrink.

Dibo3000

Sometimes you find someone within 2 seconds, sometimes it takes 8 or 10 seconds. But I'am wondering how this works. Are those people just waiting until they get an invitation?

Is this a feature you have to select? Because I never receive an invitation for a battle.

dude0812
Jeffrey-SB wrote:
dude0812 wrote:
mikekalish wrote:

So I've played roughly 500 games in the last 5 months or so. There are a few opponents I've played twice..... but there's one guy I've now played 6 times. With the millions of players on here, that seems "out there".   All my games are 60 min. rapid, and I have it set so I play opponents within 200 points of my rating. 
Is there some reason, beyond coincidence, that he and I get matched up so frequently?

I was paired with the same guy 6 or 7 times in a row on lichess. No, I was not sending him a rematch, nor he was sending me rematches. We just got paired 7 times in a row.

lichess has like 5 users so im not suprised

Nothing similar has happened before nor after. In fact, I have never been paired with the same person more than twice in a row except for that occasion and I have rarely been paired with the same person twice in a row. 

dude0812

Getting paired again with the person with whom I have just played a game happens in way less than 1% of the cases, on both websites. But let's be generous and assume that it happens 1% of the time, then there is 0.000001% chance to be paired with the same player 7 times in a row. 

Mike_Kalish

Enough to make you think it's not random. 

Eleutherius193

60 min. rapid doesn't have that many players so it is possible that two people play each other more than once, but in other games like 10 min it is rare because much more people play it