2014 Chess Olympiad (Tromsø)

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Synaphai

It seems that there is no thread on the upcoming Chess Olympiad in Tromsø, Norway, so I'm starting one myself. (The currently active thread "Tromso Olympiad" is focused on a Chess.com member's preparation for it, rather than the event in general.)

Who do you expect to win the open and women's sections? Will Carlsen play better than in the 2010 Olympiad? How will Russia do with an out-of-form Kramnik? Discuss! Smile

Synaphai

After giving this some thought, I arrived at the following predictions (regarding the questions I put forward in my post above):

The open section will be won by either France or Armenia, while China will win the women's section. Carlsen won't lose more than five rating points. The Russian team in the open section will be affected badly by Kramnik's "weak" recent results and won't win a medal.

Time4Tea

I hope team GB does well, but I'm not holding my breath!  Wink

Btw, is there a link somewhere to the official page?

Synaphai
Time4Tea wrote:

I hope team GB does well, but I'm not holding my breath! 

Btw, is there a link somewhere to the official page?

The FIDE website gives the link http://tromso2014.no/, which redirects to https://chess24.com/en/olympiad2014. So, oddly enough, it seems that the Olympiad has no independent website (unlike the last Chess World Cup).

Time4Tea

Cool, thanks!  Ah, there is no team GB - it's team England Cool

Well, here's my prediction for the open section (for what it's worth):

Gold - France

Silver - Ukraine

Bronze - England  Wink

Robert_Andersson1

Gold - Sweden

Silver - Norway

Bronze - England  Wink !!

YohannaShavit

Gold- Armenia

Silver - Norway

Bronze- Azerbaijan

starrynight14

I'm more interested in the individual players than the teams.

fabelhaft

I think it's time for Russia to win this time. Their team is so much stronger than all the others that they just have to win again sooner or later. Even if Kramnik isn't in top form they still have players like Grischuk and Karjakin on the following boards, and Svidler on fourth is in the very elite too. No one comes close to compete with that, and it's hard to even see the Russian players lose many games.

fabelhaft

Azerbaijan looks much weaker than a few years ago, and with players like Guseinov and Safarli on first and third board I don't think they will finish top three. Hungary has a much stronger team than lately, but for some reason placed 2700+ Rapport as reserve, behind players like 2637 Balogh on second board. My surprise pick for second is tenth ranked Netherlands, with Giri, van Wely, Tiviakov and l'Ami. Bronze to Armenia.

In the women's event I predict China, with a very strong team (not only Hou Yifan on first board), ahead of Ukraine, now with both Muzychuks again, and then Georgia, with a tradition of doing well in Olympiads.

So, men: 1. Russia 2. Netherlands 3. Armenia. Women: 1. China 2. Ukraine 3. Georgia

Time4Tea

It's interesting that many of the players on the lower-rated teams don't even have FIDE ratings.  What are the chances one of them might end up facing Magnus?  Wink

How does the actual tournament work, anyway?  I assume it's some kind of Swiss system?

kiszol

Please don't forget that the board numbers are not accurate at the moment. The team captains have to decide it before 19:00 on the 1st of August.

For example Hungary most likely will have Balogh as reserve, and a much stronger board order such as Leko, Almasi, Rapport, Polgar, Balogh or Leko, Rapport, Almasi, Polgar, Balogh. A very strong team and a serious medal contender in my opinion.

 

France is very strong as well, and MVL is in top form, so my prediction is:

1. Russia

2. France

3. Hungary

Synaphai
Time4Tea wrote:

It's interesting that many of the players on the lower-rated teams don't even have FIDE ratings.  What are the chances one of them might end up facing Magnus? 

How does the actual tournament work, anyway?  I assume it's some kind of Swiss system?

The pairing system is quite complex, as shown below:

https://chess24.com/en/olympiad2014/official-info/rules-and-regulations

fabelhaft

Funny how weak the women's teams are in many western countries. Ireland: three players in the 1700s. Finland: a 1648 and two players in the low 1800s. Denmark: a 2122 is the by far strongest player. Wales: a 1595 in the team. Iceland: lots of GMs on the male side but only one 2000+ among the women. Portugal: three 1700s, etc. It's almost as if one could find stronger players on the Internet in some of these countries.

fabelhaft

South Korea and Japan are big countries, and even if they have little of chess tradition it is still surprising to see bunches of 1400s and 1500s in their teams, and even an unrated player. South Korea doesn't exactly have a strong men's team either, with four of five players in the 1800s. For an otherwise rather "westernized" country with more than 50 million inhabitants and excellent Internet access it is strange that there is only one chess player in the team that has reached above the 1800s.

TMHgn

So Timur Radjabov and S. Mamedjarov are not playing for Azerbeijan? How sad.

fabelhaft

Radjabov and Mamedyarov are playing as usual, but without Gashimov, and with their top players ranked much lower than at their peaks, I don't think they will finish top three.

MrDamonSmith

My predictions are coming soon. I've never been wrong in picking the top finishers in chess Olympiad. Still working on the math, just a bit longer.

MrDamonSmith

OK, here goes. Drum roll please............

My predictions are:

1st Congo

2nd Samalia

3rd Swaziland

These will be the medalists but strong contenders will be Burundi, Zimbabwe, Rwanda, Kenya, & Seychelles.

bangalore2

What about Bhutan?

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