That's a fairly misleading headline. (The part about two Americans being one win away from the championship.)
Also, the million tournament simulation sounds like a joke. It predicted that players chances were strongly correlated with their rating. What a surprise.
"Using the eight candidates’ most recent Elo ratings, I simulated a million hypothetical Candidates Tournaments and tallied the winners. "
Haha, this really is a bad joke, doing a million simulations when you can simply compute the probabilities by hand.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-world-chess-championship-opened-with-a-wild-draw/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-world-chess-championship-is-deadlocked-after-game-2/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/computers-are-haunting-the-world-chess-championship-which-yes-is-still-tied/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-biggest-blunder-of-the-world-chess-championship-is-a-deleted-youtube-video/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/whats-it-gonna-take-for-somebody-to-win-a-chess-game/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/chess-world-rattled-as-someone-nearly-wins-game/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/another-world-chess-championship-draw-its-time-for-caruana-to-attack/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-bad-pawn-move-has-kept-the-world-chess-championship-deadlocked/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-was-finally-fabiano-caruanas-turn-to-survive-at-the-world-chess-championship/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/chess-world-celebrates-a-sensational-move-that-leads-to-a-championship-draw/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/caruana-suffers-successfully-in-game-11-of-the-world-chess-championship/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/carlsens-bizarre-decision-has-sent-the-world-chess-championship-to-overtime/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/magnus-carlsen-is-again-the-world-chess-champion/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-americans-are-one-win-from-the-world-chess-championship/