adult rating improvement: how far can one go?

This has probably been discussed here but

- Is there any standardized study/ statistics/ graphs on how much an adult player may improve their rating over time?

Let's say onehas NEVER played chess and starts playing at age 30, rating ~500, doing rapid games. How far can one go?

1000? 1500? 2000? GM? I suppose my question is fully independent of whatever number of hours of study, talent, creativity, devotion or IQ. Has this been studied at all? Is there a designed limit based on any factors?

I've listened to podcasts of adult improvers who have reached over 2000  ELO, but they all seem to have played chess when they were kids, stopped, and then restarted in adulthood.

Any ideas?

I've seen a few adults who made a lot of effort (coaches, books, tournaments). So it's just anecdotally, but from my experience they're capped around 1800-2000.

It would be hard to overestimate the affect of having a job and family. Most adults have to make a special effort to spend 10 hours a week on a hobby. Kids not only learn faster per hour, but can spend 10 hours a day.

What would be the average of a highly motivated adult with limitless time and money? Who knows. Definitely below GM though

"Is there any standardized study/ statistics/ graphs on how much an adult player may improve their rating over time?" ++ You can look at rating progress charts, e.g. 
https://ratings.fide.com/profile/2000555/chart 

"How far can one go?" ++ CM, FM, IM, or even GM is possible

"I suppose my question is fully independent of whatever number of hours of study, talent, creativity, devotion or IQ."
++ It is not independent: GM requires about 8 years of study at 10 hours/day 7 days/week.

"Is there a designed limit based on any factors?"
++ The limit is the time and the useful effort. Adults have a job, family... Kids have to attend school. Kramnik also had a family, but he never watched television to make time. He felt a decline in strength when he changed from 7 days/week to 6 days/week.
Steinitz, Lasker, Capablanca, Euwe, Botvinnik had jobs too and they became World Champions.

I climbed 1450 to 1800 plus in chess.com 30 minutes rapid rating under 2 years. Before that even though i was playing consistently for over 8 years i was having no improvement. 

I'm in my early 20's, playing since Dec 2020 (less than a year). I think that 1800 is definitely attainable as an adult. Past 1800 probably requires both a natural propensity towards calculation, and a lot of dedication. 

Im 36 years, started to play chess one year ago and now im 1450 in rapid. My next goal i have set to hit 1600. I just see chess like any other game, the more time you invest in it the better you become. 

And what was the factor that made you improve? 

Great point about former world champions.

Chigorin apparently learned to play the game at 16 as well.  Also bear in mind old time GMs were learning from books etc with no online play so there is plenty of scope to improve immensely with what is available nowadays. 

The latest anyone has learned chess and become a grandmaster is 17. Ye Jiangchuan learned at that age, was champion of China by the time he was 20, and peaked, coincidentally, at #17 in the world.

Obviously he is the most outlier of outliers. It's hard to say what the ceiling is because it depends on a lot of individual characteristics, but the majority of players starting in their 30s would struggle mightily to get to 2000, though it's certainly not out of the question. Getting any kind of title would certainly be a huge accomplishment, but for those life generally gets in the way. If you're in your 30s and have lots of free time and a certain amount of aptitude, then a low title is probably the ceiling.

If you are really dedicated and practice systematically, you might break 2000. If you are super talented 2200 might be possible, although it is very unlikely. Most adult improvers plateau somewhere between 1400 and 2000. Hours of practice and talent are just one side of the equation, the lacking neuroplasticity as an adult another which you cannot make up by dedication.

I climbed 1450 to 1800 plus in chess.com 30 minutes rapid rating under 2 years. Before that even though i was playing consistently for over 8 years i was having no improvement. 

And what was the factor that made you improve? 

Many factors like pure dedication, less distraction, no work to name a few.