Chess.com rating is rigged?

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Vrx8

THEORY

I stumbled across this post https://www.chess.com/forum/view/general/is-chess-com-slightly-rigged and nobody seems to pay attention to what user Quiksilverau is saying, what he basically say is that you don't really get matched with opponent with the same rating as you, meaning that there is a hidden rating that is not shown to the user, he complained about how you get winning streak & losing streak all the time.

PROOF

I don't really ever pay attention to when I win and lose, but after I pay attention to it what he says seems to be true, I DO GET winning and losing streak, all these long I thought that I was just tilting but it's really not, after you lose certain times you get matched with opponent with lower skill rating than you to get winning streak again. You might even want to check your archive now. You almost never get win - lose - win - lose - win - lose streak which is the logical pattern when you play with someone matching your skill. You mostly get 3 - 4 win and then 3 - 4 lose pattern, you don't even have to check your own, check ANY profile here. The proof is everywhere

WHY?

Now you might think why chess.com is doing this, the answer is because it gets the user very addicted, this hidden technique has long been used in online games with rank especially fps games, the winning streak makes you want to play more and more, while after losing streak you just thought that you are tiling and come back next day.

Why is this bad? It hinders player skill growth, playing with absolutely terrible opponent and playing with opponent out of your league the next second is not going to make you progress better.

Important

this is just all a theory, i would very like to be disproved with proofs, if what I speculate is true, I am leaving chess.com because of it's terrible system that doesn't really get you anywhere. Keep in mind this is intended to be a healthy discussion, thanks.

notmtwain
Vrx8 wrote:

THEORY

I stumbled across this post https://www.chess.com/forum/view/general/is-chess-com-slightly-rigged and nobody seems to pay attention to what user Quiksilverau is saying, what he basically say is that you don't really get matched with opponent with the same rating as you, meaning that there is a hidden rating that is not shown to the user, he complained about how you get winning streak & losing streak all the time.

PROOF

I don't really ever pay attention to when I win and lose, but after I pay attention to it what he says seems to be true, I DO GET winning and losing streak, all these long I thought that I was just tilting but it's really not, after you lose certain times you get matched with opponent with lower skill rating than you to get winning streak again. You might even want to check your archive now. You almost never get win - lose - win - lose - win - lose streak which is the logical pattern when you play with someone matching your skill. You mostly get 3 - 4 win and then 3 - 4 lose pattern, you don't even have to check your own, check ANY profile here. The proof is everywhere

WHY?

Now you might think why chess.com is doing this, the answer is because it gets the user very addicted, this hidden technique has long been used in online games with rank especially fps games, the winning streak makes you want to play more and more, while after losing streak you just thought that you are tiling and come back next day.

Why is this bad? It hinders player skill growth, playing with absolutely terrible opponent and playing with opponent out of your league the next second is not going to make you progress better.

Important

this is just all a theory, i would very like to be disproved with proofs, if what I speculate is true, I am leaving chess.com because of it's terrible system that doesn't really get you anywhere. Keep in mind this is intended to be a healthy discussion, thanks.

I think you are mistaken. 

By your theory, flipping coins is rigged too. You don't get heads, tails, heads, tails.

You get the same sort of streaks you see here at chess.com. 

Vrx8
notmtwain wrote:

I think you are mistaken. 

By your theory, flipping coins is rigged too. You don't get heads, tails, heads, tails.

You get the same sort of streaks you see here at chess.com. 

How? I am not talking about my own experience, like i said multiple time in the post you should check your own and random people's account winning and losing. It is always the same pattern. Even your account has the exact same patter I mentioned above, 3-4 win then 3-4 lose. And literally no win - lose - win - lose

Martin_Stahl
Vrx8 wrote:
notmtwain wrote:

I think you are mistaken. 

By your theory, flipping coins is rigged too. You don't get heads, tails, heads, tails.

You get the same sort of streaks you see here at chess.com. 

How? I am not talking about my own experience, like i said multiple time in the post you should check your own and random people's account winning and losing. It is always the same pattern. Even your account has the exact same patter I mentioned above, 3-4 win then 3-4 lose. And literally no win - lose - win - lose

 

Even in real life you get streaks. At my club I can get a winning streak against a similarly rated player and the next session, barely manage a win. Other times we may be more even.

 

It has nothing to do with the site's pairing algorithm. It's already complicated enough, that for them to add additional criteria to the pairing logic to try and elicit some addictive response is nonsensical.

johnco316
Yes. I agree. Also, Have you ever noticed that just after you say no to upgrading, you tend to lose the next several games?
goodbye27

in your settings you define a rating range you wanna match. server probably tries to find you an opponent with rating as close as possible to yours.. btw i had a match yesterday, our ratings were exactly the same.

MarkGrubb

I believe it's called Pareidolia. It's very common. Your doctor may be able to treat it 🙃

MarkGrubb

Correction. Apophenia. Pareidolia relates specifically to images or sounds.

johnco316
I keep hearing g the coin flip analogy, but I don’t think that holds up. Coins are completely arbitrary. There is no skill level there. Rather you need to look at things like sports teams that are well matched. You seldom see long steaks of wins when several teams are evenly matched.
sndeww

in 10 mins I often get win-lose-win-win-lose-win-lose-lose-lose-win-win-lose

goodbye27
MarkGrubb wrote:

Correction. Apophenia. Pareidolia relates specifically to images or sounds.

grin.png grin.png

Sir-Foxy
Vrx8 wrote:

win - lose - win - lose - win - lose streak which is the logical pattern when you play with someone matching your skill.

Incorrect.

Sir-Foxy

Flip 100 coins here (if you're too lazy to do it yourself) and notice the streaks.

https://www.random.org/coins/

Your idea is related to the gambler's fallacy, which believes, for example, if you flip 3 tails in a row you're more likely to get heads on the 4th flip. This is incorrect. The 4th flip is still a 50% chance.

johnco316
Still, coin flips are just random. Can’t be compared to competing skill levels.
jeremyjoejj

This forum thread was brought to you by ignorance of statistics. Read a book on probabilities and odds and perhaps you will start focusing on improving yourself instead of making up stories <3

KetoOn1963

What are you expecting that doesnt involve winning and losing streaks?

Sir-Foxy
johnco316 wrote:
Still, coin flips are just random. Can’t be compared to competing skill levels.

The rating system adjusts people's rating up and down depending on if they over or under preform.

And chess.com pairs people with similar ratings together.

For most players (not people near the very best or very worst) if they play under similar conditions (they're not playing while very tired or distracted one day, then focused the next) then their win/loss ratio will be nearly 50/50... like a coin flip will lead to 50/50 heads and tails if you flip it enough times (law of large numbers).

However this 50/50 does not mean the normal pattern is win, loss, win, loss... and you can test this yourself by flipping a coin.

If you flip a coin 100 times it's pretty likely you'll get a streak of 6, and about half the time you'll get a streak of 7.

Sred
Vrx8 wrote:

THEORY

I stumbled across this post https://www.chess.com/forum/view/general/is-chess-com-slightly-rigged and nobody seems to pay attention to what user Quiksilverau is saying, what he basically say is that you don't really get matched with opponent with the same rating as you, meaning that there is a hidden rating that is not shown to the user, he complained about how you get winning streak & losing streak all the time.

PROOF

I don't really ever pay attention to when I win and lose, but after I pay attention to it what he says seems to be true, I DO GET winning and losing streak, all these long I thought that I was just tilting but it's really not, after you lose certain times you get matched with opponent with lower skill rating than you to get winning streak again. You might even want to check your archive now. You almost never get win - lose - win - lose - win - lose streak which is the logical pattern when you play with someone matching your skill. You mostly get 3 - 4 win and then 3 - 4 lose pattern, you don't even have to check your own, check ANY profile here. The proof is everywhere

WHY?

Now you might think why chess.com is doing this, the answer is because it gets the user very addicted, this hidden technique has long been used in online games with rank especially fps games, the winning streak makes you want to play more and more, while after losing streak you just thought that you are tiling and come back next day.

Why is this bad? It hinders player skill growth, playing with absolutely terrible opponent and playing with opponent out of your league the next second is not going to make you progress better.

Important

this is just all a theory, i would very like to be disproved with proofs, if what I speculate is true, I am leaving chess.com because of it's terrible system that doesn't really get you anywhere. Keep in mind this is intended to be a healthy discussion, thanks.

This is just a giant conspiracy theory. There is enough statistical evidence out there, so if you're right, calculate it. Note that anecdotal evidence of users experiencing streaks is just what one would expect, because that's how randomness works.

lfPatriotGames
johnco316 wrote:
I keep hearing g the coin flip analogy, but I don’t think that holds up. Coins are completely arbitrary. There is no skill level there. Rather you need to look at things like sports teams that are well matched. You seldom see long steaks of wins when several teams are evenly matched.

Coin flipping can be rigged too. It depends on the coin flipper. By "rigged" I assume that means an intentional advantage to one side that the other side is not aware of. A very skilled coin flipper can get the results he wants far more than 50% of the time. I agree though that something like evenly matched sports teams is a better example.

MarkGrubb

Dilbert Random Number Generator - Imgur

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