How good can I expect to become?

I've heard it's virtually impossible to become a grandmaster if you don't start when you very young, but I'd like to know how someone who started playing chess can expect to become if he dedicated several hours every week for the rest of his life. Do you think you could give me a rough rating I might expect when I'm 40. How fast does progress happen in chess?

Probably master level and then any higher depends purely on your work ethic and, probably, genetic make up.

A lot of people have suggested that most people can become a Master if they put the effort into the game.

Expect nothing and just watch where your potential takes you...then you can tell us.

I'd just like to become that guy in the city park that dominates all the other players. I'd also like to beat the casual chess player about 95 percent of the time. I know that this requires work, and not just fantasizing, but I'm curious about the nature of chess's learning curve, and the difference between a 1700 player and a 1200 player. Could one of you give me some detail.

What's a casual chessplayer? Do you mean people who own a chess board (everyone) but never use it? If so a rating of 1200 USCF is probably sufficient to beat them 95% of the time.

You gotta be a total chess nerd to see great improvements in the game. 

Dedicated practice for 3 Hours a day, 7 Days a week, 365 Days a year, for ten years and you will be a top level player. 

2 hours a day and you will be a low level pro (which is probably sub IM). 1 Hour a day and you will be a talented amateur (Expert-Master?). These are not numbers I am pulling out of the air but have been proven consistent across multiple fields of endeavors through many different studies. 

I don't believe this at all.

"Many different studies" meaning that Malcolm Gladwell wrote it in a book?  Please post said studies.

I like Gladwell overall but this theory is bunk.

Your belief is not required, those are the numbers that have been consistently found through scientific study. It is also known as the 10,000 hour rule.

I was told about it 6 years ago when I started Kendo. I started looking into it and my instructor was quite right. Recently Malcome Gladwell wrote a book based on those and other studies. I suggest you take a look at it. 

Remember Gladwell is not a Scientist he is a writer. The studies he is basing the book on have been well known for years. If you don't have the time to look into those studies I will try to find a few for you when I get home. 

Bunk? What studies have you found that suggest otherwise? What do those studies tell us goes into success? Since many of use are trying to be successful, if you know something we don't please tell us. 

I've studied/practiced for at least that amount of time every day for about 1.5 years. In that time, my CC rating has risen by around 300 points. Can I expect to be another 300 points higher (chess.com rating) in 1.5 years' from now?

Do the studies say that those who achieve a certain level of expertise typically have gone through 10,000 hours of study/practice OR that the average person who invests the 10,000 hours will achieve that expert level?

all you need to become a master is an obsession, and the ability to work countless hours on tactics.

when Fischer was younger he would go into a chess club and scan the room for books. he would run up to a book and try to absorb everything there was in it and move on.

If you try to learn from every move you make I think master is possible

It's not as though a master is some God like, super being. If you saw an annotated game where a 2200 rated player is totally dismantled by a GM it's very apparent that they make their fair share of mistakes.

Chess is a game that, no matter how hard you try, will always hold in it a great deal of power to players who have natural vision and creativity on the board. Knowing the rules is one thing, knowing when to break them something that not all of us can grasp.

To answer your question, I'll wait 'till your fortieth birthday before giving a solid estimate.

Oh, wow. That is an excellent point. I never noticed that interesting subtlety in the argument.

That is a good point. I've been reading chess articles about as much as I've been playing chess, which is a few hours a day. Is the key studying or practice?

What level do you have to be to consistantly beat some of about 1200. I'd like to be around that level, but I'm not sure how big a difference of 500 points actually is.

Based on the Graphs I have seen the returns diminish over time. Generally by about half each year. If I remember correctly the reduction in returns are geometric rather than logarithmic. 

I see this in Kendo all the time. People make huge progress their first year while high level players struggle to make progress.

That said, the most beneficial practice seems not to be games but rather focused practice. 

From theNY times:

"Total hours of practice may be more important than time spent in competition, according to findings not yet published by Dr. Neil Charness, a colleague of Dr. Ericsson at Florida State University. Dr. Charness, comparing the rankings of 107 competitors in the 1993 Berlin City Tournament, found that the more time they spent practicing alone, the higher their ranking as chess players. But there was no relationship between the chess players' rankings and the time they spent playing others.”

From what I have seen its looks more like a threshold, if you want to be a world class expert you need to be at least this tall. :)