How long is the road to 1800 going to take?

Hey!

I have been playing chess for about 4,5 months and have so far roughly gained a 1400 blitz rating. I feel as if I am at a level where it's harder to improve so I'm wondering, how long should it take for me to get to my next milestone, a rating of 1800? 

This is only a guess.

Well at your current pace of increase of 200 points (from 1200 where you start) in 5 months, after 10 months (5 to 6 months from now) it's safe to assume you could reach 1600 if you continue to study and practice at the same intensity as you did during the first 4-5 months. Then another 200 every 4-5 months would put you at your next milestone in a couple months shy of a year from now.

1400 is good though for only playing a few months!

Depends on talent and how often and how you study.  At your level study things like different center types, pawn structures, and plans around them, right rook, opposite colored bishops, harder tactics, harder endgames, and work on thought process, such as asking yourself about checks, captures, threats, looking at imbalances, then determining who you think stands better and why.  After all, you aren't going to sacrifice material for a forced threefold repetition if you think you're clearly better would you? 

The more you improve the more dedication you need to keep improving.

If you become completely obsessed you might do it in another five months, while if you work at the same rate you do now it could take forever.

I was around 1400 strength in 2003..  I cracked 1800 nine years later.. but I'm a procrastinator..  :)

You have to remember the law of diminishing returns.  The road will be longer because he'll have tougher opposition, meaning his loss and draw record will even out over time.  If it takes 5 months to reach 1400 then it might take 8 or 9 to reach 1600.  The higher you go the slower improvement happens as a general rule.  It's much going from bad to average than it is going from average to good, and it takes astronomical work for an elite player to go from elite to a smidge better.  In other words, if Nakamura wants to gain 20 rating points he'll need to train impractically long and hard, though it's all preperation up there anyway.    

Don't let this discourage you though! 

I started reasonably. The first chess tournament I ever played in was the U S Open in Omaha in 1959 at age 18.  My score was 5 wins and 5 losses and 2 draws which made me a low class A.

The next tournament I won but still was class A.

Then for a few years played in central Illinois and won or tied for first in several tournaments. And was then expert USCF.

Then I played in the Chicago US Open in 1973 and rating rose to 2188.

Then, after that, two more tournaments both which I won with a score of 4 wins and no losses or draws. This was also in 1973. Then I decided I was much better in postal.  And I played in postal and correspondence exclusively.

My USCF rating has remained at 2188 for the last 40 years.

My correspondence rating considerably higher.

Now time has passed me by and I cannot play worth a darn...

You clearly don't live in a big city, because they totally build skyscrapers 1 floor on top of the others.

Some people will be never reaching it at all. 

True. Only because you improve fast as a beginner you cannot give for granted that the improvements will keep on coming, even at a reduced rate.

Plus 1400 blitz rating has nothing to do with the OTB rating (rapid or longer time controls). They require different skills.

I started at 950, 4 months ago!

That sounds about right and a normal improvement rate for a reasonably intelligent beginner. I think I was only in the 700s. Of course, technically, we all start rated at 1200 because that's the system default and then after losing a few games it goes down lower to reflect the lower strength. 

But yeah, I went from 700s (feb '12 to a high of 1440 in blitz in about a year jun 13.)

you can go to the uscf website and look at the history of thousands of players to see how long it took them to get from point A to point B.

for instance http://www.uschess.org/msa/MbrDtlTnmtHst.php?13968900

I am assuming this guy is from North Carolina, where they have a strong scholastic program.

His first turney was in 2008 and he ended up rated like 171. At the moment he is rated 1825.

So thats a kid who started young and has played in at least 76 OTB events.

from July '10 to July '13 he went from 1300 to 1700

you can look at something like the world open, look at the under 1800 players and u can see exactly how long different ones took to get to that point

http://www.uschess.org/component/option,com_wrapper/Itemid,181/

my advice is dont get in too much of a hurry. It will take years, not months. If you have only played a few months, and that online, I wouldnt even get my heart set on the fact that I was a "1400." Go play in some local otb turneys and/or find a local club to gauge your actual strength

2 yrs.

Being a legitimate A player is quite an undertaking. It sounds like you know what you want. If you believe you can achieve. 1801 or bust

Go play OTB. Real chess is OTB.

I have improved (on average) about 100 points per month. Now I hover between 1350-1500 and it feels like I'm pretty stable here. Although it feels like it's going a bit slower to gain points.

Will do! Going to a tournament next month (time control 1 hour, 8 games)

Actually, tactics and endgame skill are the beams. Opening repertoire is the facade. It may change over time, but if the structure is solid, results remain strong. Consider Vladimir Kramnik, for instance. He started with the Sveshnikov Sicilian, only to emerge in his World Championship match (or a little before) as the Great Revivalist of the Petroff Defense and the Berlin Defense to the Spanish.

I would guess 1000 hours. Of training. About 10 years.