But you only used Rapid? You realize some people exclusively play blitz or daily etc.
It's hard to imagine there are 20 million "active" members. If we define active as playing on at least 10 different day in a month, for at least 3 consecutive months, then I'm imagining something more like 500,000.
....
Rapid gives a lower bound based on the activity criteria of at least 20 games in the pool in the last 90 days.
Sure you can define active in any way you want, which will change the numbers.
There are over 300,000 members online right now and almost 12 million games have been played in the last 24 hours.
I'm not disagreeing, but calling it a lower bound when the definition is so broad is funny to me.
As for people online right now, it's hard to know how many of those 300,000 will never come back again, the perpetual revolving door of curious beginners and non-players
And I'm sure there's some pareto principle involved here where 80% of the games come from 20% of the players sort of thing.
Heck, by your definition, I don't think I would qualify as active