Increase in Player pool effecting Elo ratings?

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Srobocop0615

I know Chess.com elo ratings aren't an exact science, but with the recent growing popularity in Chess followed by the Netflix the Queen's Gambit, how do you think an influx of players at (presumably) lower elo ratings affect the elo ratings. Would less talented players mean generally that other lower level players that have more experience would see a bump in their chess.com elo rating? 

Basically, I've been playing and studying chess quite a bit, especially during lockdown. I hit a slump where I was stuck in the mid 800 rating range, and lately I've been keeping up in the 900s. Like I said I've been playing and studying, so it makes sense I'd have some improvement, but I'm also wondering if it isn't due to the influx in new players. 

Thoughts? 

notmtwain
Srobocop0615 wrote:

I know Chess.com elo ratings aren't an exact science, but with the recent growing popularity in Chess followed by the Netflix the Queen's Gambit, how do you think an influx of players at (presumably) lower elo ratings affect the elo ratings. Would less talented players mean generally that other lower level players that have more experience would see a bump in their chess.com elo rating? 

 

Basically, I've been playing and studying chess quite a bit, especially during lockdown. I hit a slump where I was stuck in the mid 800 rating range, and lately I've been keeping up in the 900s. Like I said I've been playing and studying, so it makes sense I'd have some improvement, but I'm also wondering if it isn't due to the influx in new players. 

 

Thoughts? 

While the question is interesting, I don't think anyone has any idea because there isn't data available to show that.

We can guess that there would be a short-term increase in the pools from "The Queen's Gambit." Perhaps several million might find their way here. (Netflix revealed that 62 million households had watched it in the first month.)

And that most would know almost nothing to start.

Except for those long inactive players drawn back to the game. 

But getting actual numbers seems unlikely.

Even if you had a data field that registered players coming after watching TQG, the effect of the pandemic was probably larger.

Keep studying.

StormCentre3

“The Elo rating system was officially adopted by the U.S. Chess Federation in 1960 and by FIDE in 1970. Many chess organizations and websites also use this system to rate players. On Chess.com, we use a modified version of the Elo system called the Glicko system, which takes more variables into consideration to determine a player's rating.”

ELO ratings are typically reserved for OTB play. It is not technically correct to reference to online ratings as as an official ELO rating - 

As you are correct- the more players in the pairing pools results in rating inflation. 
Example: There are 125 ! Players rated 2900+ in blitz at CC. 

# Name Rating
1 Nakamura, Hikaru 2900
2 Carlsen, Magnus 2887
3 Vachier-Lagrave, Maxime 2822
4 So, Wesley 2816

Here is January’s ELO list.

StormCentre3

CC players are dragging everybody along to higher and higher online ratings. Won’t be long till these 125 rated players >2900 become 150 players >3000.

notmtwain
BadBishopJones3 wrote:

CC players are dragging everybody along to higher and higher online ratings. Won’t be long till these 125 rated players >2900 become 150 players >3000.

The question was not how the influx would affect the ratings of the highest rated players.

The question was how it would affect the "lower level players that have more experience" than the incoming hordes.

StormCentre3

The same. The more players entering any given rating pool and their ratings will gradually become inflated.

Srobocop0615

I love how some people went right to the top. I don't believe it'll affect higher rated players. I think if anything the 900 to 1400 range area might be somewhat inflated, after that I feel that the skill level should even out the ratings. Just because a large group of lower rated players joined and started playing shouldn't affect anyone in the 1800+ rating area. 

I was just curious if anyone else thought this was probable. It seems so. 

osem4

Greetings to everyone, is there anyone who speaks Arabic?

StormCentre3

What doesn’t change is the rating percentile- a players relative strength compared to the entirety of players .

Its a natural consequence of the ELO rating system - the more players and everybody’s rating will become inflated. New players fill in the lower ratings. They play the same a year later- but their rating will be slightly increased due to the built in inflationary nature of the system.

StormCentre3

A 200 point (improvement) increase in rating = almost another skill level. Quite the better player than someone 200 points lower. Not long ago 2700 was reserved for the very few. Now there are 125 players rated 2900+. Think their skills have increased by 200 points? Hardly. Their play remains relatively stable. Ratings have become  so inflated due to the vast amount of new players compared to before when 2700 was the upper echelon. Who are the new 2700 rated players now? Why of course it’s the previous 2500 rated players and all the new players entering the pool from below (as they moved up in rating). 
The effect trickles down throughout the entire rating spectrum. 
It is more pronounced and visible at the upper end. But still remains at the lower levels where inflation may account for a much smaller increase- but it’s still there. It’s an open ended system - (not closed). There is only one way for ratings to go - constantly higher (there is no ceiling) as new players enter the pool. More players are moving upward relative to previous years, although percentages remain the same when comparing how many players win/lose rating. Stability is found at the bottom as ratings drop only so far with new players entering at bottom.