Max elo estimation for 25 y.o beginners

There is a quite popular opinion, spread by many chess youtubers, that if you are not around 2200 elo at your 14, there is no chance of ever becoming a GM. Sounds fair. But what about other categories? What estimate peak rating can a person get? If he/she started playing at the age of 25+. I play on daily basis 4-5 hours, switching between learning theory and playing against the same elo players. And have some coaching session on weekends and playing on a real chess board in a local club. It took me like 2 month, to get to 1388 from absolute zero. My coach who is FM, states that everyone is capable of getting around 2000 sooner or later, getting higher than that demands full dedication. What’s your opinion on those estimations?

Some people have earned master titles well into their 50’s, so nothing is impossible, making it hard to estimate your max rating

Gm is possible

As long as you aren’t dead or suffering from dementia, it’s possible if you want it really, really hard and is willing to put in the work.

One guy became a GM well in his 80s.

Kids don’t have to work 40-60 hours a week to live, though. Kids have time to study and improve, adults don’t.

Bowser, do you remember some exact names, I won’t to read their stories

Who became GM in his 80’s?

Enrico Paoli

4-5 hours per day plus you have a coach you're bound to get close to 2000 but for a title I think you need some natural talent.

If Fischer started at 25, who knows.

If a normal person starts at 25, then I'd say 1900-2000 OTB is very high (which would be equal to online ratings that are a few 100 points higher).

Obviously there will be cases of people doing better, but it's uncommon.

Getting a title at 50 is a completely different question though.

This sounds nice until you get out in the real world and watch adult beginners hire multiple coaches and work hard and read lots of books and play in many tournaments... and they're rated 1800 OTB / 2000-ish online.

I'm sure GM is possible for a 25 year old beginner, but "possible" is a very low bar. It's "possible" the earth explodes tomorrow. If the question is "what is reasonable to expect" then the answer is "it's reasonable to expect they will never get close to GM, even if they work very hard."

 

Finegold became a GM at 40... but he was a master at age 14. 2200 to 2500 is only 300 points, and the only reason he didn't get it sooner is because he wasn't playing in Europe where norm tournaments are common.

Larry Kaufman became a GM at 60, but it wasn't by being as good as a GM. In rare cases the title is awarded for winning a tournament, and he won the world seniors championship. He was probably weak IM strength at the time, and he'd gotten the IM title 30 years earlier.

None of this is the same as starting as an adult.

Wow, it’s like there are no honorary titles under GM that indicate that you are a master at the game. Never heard of NM? IM? No? These two titles are not respectable enough?

It’s not like it is so heavily restricted by FIDE or national chess federation to be unattainable, anyway : do the required performance at a number or their tournaments, and you get the title. And 2200 is perfectly attainable at 2000 IF you go serious about it.

Unlike physical sports, where you body literally start to decline around 40 yo, there’s no ceiling in chess unless dementia starts to set in. You can be in your 60s, even your 80s, and play absolutely fine chess. Korchnoi didn’t suddenly start playing like a patzer he was an elderly, he would absolutely rip GMs apart on a chessboard even in his 80s.

Besides, at 2000 (real FIDE ELO, not wannabee chess.com ELO) you are now in the top percentiles of chess players. New concepts have to be learned and assimilated to be played by rote, so it is perfectly normal for such players to change coach if it no longer works.

However, what is required as much as ability is TIME… that is the main luxury for older players. GMs spend the same amount of hours per day that people use to go to work or raise their children to study and improve their chess games. Can you dedicate 8-12 hours per DAY to work on chess? Are you willing and able to travel to the farthest regions of the world to play in FIDE tournaments?

Finegold is also quite open that, as a kid he was definitely NOT a chess whiz. That is why he knows very, very intimately how it is for beginners and chess players who want to improve, but have no readily available support resources to grow out and improve.

However, he never stopped playing chess and eventually became a master in adulthood through sheer force of will and commitment. Most kids and adults in a similar situation give up. I gave up, for 30 years.

He was a master at 14.

@1

"It took me like 2 month, to get to 1388 from absolute zero."
++ 1500 is an easy target: just blunder check.

"My coach who is FM, states that everyone is capable of getting around 2000 sooner or later"
++ Yes, true. In one year you can reach 2000, but it requires hard work.

Finegold disagreed. He said he lacks the energy to improve his results. He can learn new things, but his performance will only decline because he lacks the energy to play a high quality OTB tournament game.

You'll also notice top players are in very good physical shape. Some of them run every morning and lift weights. I think it was Grischuk who said he saw that Carlsen was not exhausted after playing basketball for 3 hours.

Real life chess competition and improvement is very different from what people imagine it to be... they imagine the sorts of things you're saying here.

This will be wrong no matter how many times you say it.

Cheers! Was really helpful! Haha.

i sometimes wonder if the right ratio of nootropics can combat this concern.

and yes people underestimate how difficult becoming a 2000 player really  is. That is like 95th percentile in a very heavy experience and pattern recognition game.

compare to  a game like starcraft where with the right talent, 2 years is about as much of the right training you take to reach the very top tiers. 2 years in chess to "mere" expert is quite a bragging right.