Over confidence vs. Under confidence

I feel like both over and under confidence is an issue players might face during games or/and tournaments. 

To try to understand this, I'll make a scenario with how this would work.

There are 2 players in the same tournament. 

Player 1, and Player 2.

Player 1 and 2 both have the exact same thinking process, ratings, and other factors (In a real-life scenario this would be almost impossible but for the sake of comparison) except one thing:

Player 1 enters the tournament over-confident, having the wonderful feeling of being able to win without doing too much work. 

Player 2 enters the tournament under-confident, having the sad feeling that they will lose most of their games, no matter how much they try. 

There are 2 ways that each player can go about this: 

For player 1:

- "Oh wow I can win this tournament so easily, this will be a piece of cake!"

- "Oh wow, I should still try my best, to be on the safe side"

For player 2:

- "Oh no, I can't win this tournament, no matter how hard I try"

- "Oh no, this tournament seems really hard, but I'll still try my best"

The main difference is option 1 for each player, so this brings me to the question:

Would a player perform differently being overconfident or underconfident, because it kind of seems equal in a sense, but if they both were to experience a different playing ability, being overconfident or underconfident, who would have the edge?

I entered many tournaments being over and under-confident, and I would really like to know the answer. 

Thanks for taking the time to read this. 

Stay safe. 

- Larry 

I guess it depends on the player... Personally I perform really poorly when overconfident, and really well when I know it's an uphill battle. Basically, if I think I have a chance with my full effort, then it ends up being my best play. I think it really depends on which motivates you more, and for me it's conquering the difficult. 

I don’t know about y’all but here’s my thinking:

If I think the tournament is hard, I don’t dwell on the hard part. I should play well because otherwise I can’t win.

If I think the tournament is easy, I should play my best. This way I give off the feeling of being “untouchable” which is great for my ego 😁

If I miss my goal for the tournament, I don’t dwell on the loss. Playing bad in the next game won’t change anything- what is done is done.

My confidence is confidential. 

You’re confident you had it somewhere, but you can’t find it. Did you lose it? You might be confident it was lost somewhere. Did you contact your local shelter lost and found?

*pats*

Quite unfortunate 

but do u care for ur confidence and car keys

You do get nicer breeze without them to be sure 

I'd say underconfidence for sure, except going with the second phrase they said. "this is going to be really hard, but I'll try my best." Its human nature to be more careful when you're nervous, so in a head to head battle, player 2 would be more nervous, and thus take longer per move and play more accurately, so as to not give any sort of advantage to the overconfident player, who will, in time, blunder and eventually lose the game

Being confident in yourself that you're going to do terribly is the worst outcome, and from personal experience (I've been through both phases quite a few times), its usually the opposite of what you expect.

imo people who are under confident probably at the same time are trying to be humble, but they tell everyone they aren’t good. Maybe at some point you begin to believe it. Not sure, just speculation.

if ur feigning humbleness, you're already the most overconfident person in the room. I went to a tourney back in jan. Normally, i need a long time to go from casual blitz+music to hardcore tournament with 2-3 hour games. I barely studied for 2 days (normally i need around 2-3 weeks) and i thought i was gonna end up dead last. I did meh, with 3-0-2 and both losses were the top 7 (out of like 45 ppl) and i was in the bottom 5.

After that tournament for a bit, i analyzed and thought about chess for a bit. I would say then, I was super confident in myself to do really well in a tourny.

I think that if you are being humble, you are technically lying to some degree 🤔 

I get massive swings of both overconfidence and underconfidence.

I lost to a CM over the board last week, I had the white pieces and a near 30 minute time advantage; he was late to the board and thought for a long time in the opening. I had beaten a 1950 and an 1850 in the previous rounds, and I was feeling pretty damn confident, satisfied with online rapid gains and otb results.

After the loss, the classic "aura of invincibility" disappeared, followed by a massive swing of doubt. Immediately believing I just suck at chess. Of course I lost to a 2150. I'm not that level. But somehow, I had led myself to believe that beating/drawing a CM wasn't out of reach. And that I had failed myself by not doing so. The last couple days since then I've played some horrible chess and now I'm really slipping, I'm worried if I play more I'll fall further. 
Confidence is definitely a part of the game. 

yea. you definitely play your best chess when you know its gonna be a tough game, but you can eventually pull out the win/draw against a better player. It keeps you on your toes, and makes you think through everything more than twice.

Great topic and really interesting question!

The real question is the impact of under and over confidence on performance and I think there are some factors to add. Your post (edited layout a bit for clarity)

Let's start with my take on under confidence, because it's probably the worst one. At least, in my experience.  One or more of the following things can happen

• A general feeling of nervousness, stress and/ or anxiety. This hinders clear thinking. 
• A tendency to avoid mistakes rather than playing the best moves. Avoiding mistakes can be the best move of course, as long as it's not clouding your judgement. Too much focus on not messing up, by playing stupid moves, can lead to overly defensive or passive play. 
• Overthinking too much and end up in time trouble.
• Against players that are (much) better, my lack of confidence in my ability to win (even when totally justified), can lead to giving up mentally. This happens most often in losing endgames for me, where I just move pieces around rather than giving everything I have to find counterplay. In contrast, when I am confident I am the better player, can motivate me to give everything I have to get back in the game. When I know I am the better player, I will keep fighting because I 'know' I can still win. 
• Strategically, by which I mean overall tournament (meta) strategy. When under confident, you will be more likely to accept or play for a draw then necessary.

On the other hand, over confidence can also lead to problems. Mainly these two

• Loss of focus and not paying enough attention, especially in a winning position. When it looks like you will win easily, either because of a superior board position or due to being a much better player than your opponent, you might miss a tactic or worse, fall for a trap. 
• Or just playing a bit too sloppy or hastily.
• Going for risky play. Opposite to under confidence leading to defensive play, over confidence can lead to overly aggressive play, going for that Bishop sacrifice and a powerful attack on his King, assuming you wil find a mate somewhere down the line.
• Even worse is when you convince yourself fancy play is the way to go. Go wild and show everyone you can win with a Stafford Gambit. 
• Strategically (meta/tournament), You will probably play for a win more often, go for imbalanced positions and avoid draws. Thus risk losing.

Also, maybe you can consider multiple scenarios.

• If both players are playing a game that's based on opening theory, both will be equally good, I think. The under confident players will, in the early game at least, be confident that they know the opening and mid games positions well enough. So they are safe. The over confident player will probably play the exact same game as long as he doesn't suddenly decide to play something crazy.
• What will happen if your opponent is a maniac that plays some novelty on move 2 and by move 4 you are in completely new territory. In this scenario the games will play out completely different between the two players. In this case I would rather be over confident, with an inflated belief in my ability to just wing it. Under confidence will probably just lead to feeling a lot of stress, burning time and not having a good time.