Phil Ivey vs. Magnus Carlsen..poker and chess

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DiogenesDue
Julio_Ajedrez wrote:

I have an idea for you guys: why don't you go over to forumserver.twoplustwo.com and discuss these things with the guys over there?

There's a ton of better and more respected players than me over there, and I sure some of them will take the time and try to explain certain things to you, or point you in the right direction.

one thing both chess players and poker players share in common btw:

they both think they are superior to the other and could learn the other's game reasonably fast. tom dwan also thought he could beat his friend who's an IM if he'd just take up chess more seriously for 2-3 months lol.

The difference is, only one side is actually right.

DiogenesDue
Julio_Ajedrez wrote:
btickler hat geschrieben:
Julio_Ajedrez wrote:

now you are confusing me with somebody else or suffer from poor reading comprehension. or where do you see me say anything against this statement that people can win hands vs top poker players?

winning a hand in poker is a very temporary achievement; it's not even as substantial as making 1 move in a chess game. skill in poker kicks in as soon as laws of large numbers begin to work.

If you're not going to comment in the context of the thread you are in, you might as well leave.  Either demonstrate how you imagine that a pro poker player can win 99% of hands as claimed, or don't comment on my reply refuting said claim. 

You might notice that your original reply to my post does not address what I said at all.  Pot.  Kettle.  Black.

my point was to correct certain missconceptions you and others seem to have about poker, in this case namely that it is at all relevant to say "an amateur can win a hand in poker vs the best in the world" when comparing poker and chess.

I realize now you'd rather live with your missconceptions as this seems more comfortable to you than informing yourself about a topic before you open your mouth. the virtue of the idiot, i guess.

Hey Sherlock, I did not make the original claim.  It was the brilliant minds on the poker side of this argument that tried to say that someone like Phil Ivey could win 99% or all but a few hands out of 100 total hands vs. Magnus Carlsen with 10 weeks of Phil Ivey's best mentoring under his belt. 

You apparently agree with this stance, since you are defending it.

DiogenesDue
Julio_Ajedrez wrote:

if chess players could learn poker so fast, why is it that we don't see a ton of IMs and NMs going after a successfull poker career?

after all, there's more money to be made in poker.

btickler, you are just an idiot trying to keep this picture of chess' superiority alive in your head. get over it.

There's no "superiority" involved.  The simple math of the two game designs makes the answer obvious to anyone that even a modicum of game design/theory under their belt.  The best chess player in the world will/would always have a much better chance of winning in poker vs. the world's best poker player than the poker player would have of beating the best chess player; this is due to the mechanics of the game, and will never change no matter who those two players might be.

Period.  End of story.  Anyone, and I mean anyone, that understands both games at a competent level, can see this.

DiogenesDue
Julio_Ajedrez wrote:
btickler hat geschrieben:
Julio_Ajedrez wrote:

if chess players could learn poker so fast, why is it that we don't see a ton of IMs and NMs going after a successfull poker career?

after all, there's more money to be made in poker.

btickler, you are just an idiot trying to keep this picture of chess' superiority alive in your head. get over it.

There's no "superiority" involved.  The simple math of the two game designs makes the answer obvious to anyone that even a modicum of game design/theory under their belt.  The best chess player in the world will/would always have a much better chance of winning in poker vs. the world's best poker player than the poker player would have of beating the best chess player; this is due to the mechanics of the game, and will never change no matter how those two players might be.

Period.  End of story.  Anyone, and I mean anyone, that understands both games at a competent level, can see this.

you're dead wrong. either you have no clue about poker or maths.

I will state this one last time: there's no difference between Magnus playing a game of chess vs Ivey and Ivey playing a sufficient number of hands vs Magnus. the champ of the respective game is gona crush the other one, 100% certain.

This is about one session of each game...1 game of chess vs. one heads up poker match.  Don't try to weasel out by talking about a statistical number of hands that removes the variances.  That was never the parameters of this discussion.

Here's the thread about Tom Dwan.  Another poker player that doesn't understand game design...

DiogenesDue
Julio_Ajedrez wrote:
 

"this is about one session of each game"

and I made it clear with numerous posts that this comparison is irrelevant and idiotic due to the differing natures of the games. 

i also mentioned dwan myself already, when i stated both sides think it's easy to learn the other game. you are just hopeless at this reading thing aren't you?

Thus the "here's the thread about...".  Who can't read here?  This was obviously in response to your mention.

It doesn't matter whether you think the comparison is irrelevent (though if you really did, you wouldn't be posting here), because this comparison is the topic of the thread that you have chosen to post in.

so if you want to compare chess and poker, do it that way.

Again...This comparison was not chosen by me, I am simply refuting it.  You have effectively done the same by trying to change the original criteria:

"well, the original comparison is ridiculous..."

Yes, that's the point.

Go back to to your six pack of PBR and your weekly $1 ante game.  

toiyabe
Julio_Ajedrez wrote:

fixing_arsehole, it might be time to step down from your high horse and learn something about game theory before you make yourself look like an idiot.

my last input for today: we all know what the outcome of stockfish 5 vs any GM will be in a match. Bots in poker on the other hand still struggle to beat top level players. so, after all, poker might actually not be that simple as both bfickler and fixing_arshole think, and there might be a bit more to it than "reading your opponents tell" and all this bullcrap.

have a nice day.

1) Thinks poker "theory" is even remotely close to chess theory in logic.

2) Proceeds to compare bots between poker and chess.

3) Worried about others making themselves look like idiots.

 

/argument

DiogenesDue
Julio_Ajedrez wrote:
btickler hat geschrieben:
 

Go back to to your six pack of PBR and your weekly $1 ante game.  

I played PLO daily for 5 years as my only income, was playing up to 600PLO.

what have you done in your favorite game that can compare to it?

and yes, it does not matter whether i think the comparison is irrelevant or not.

it just is. just like anything you have to say about this topic it seems.

 

have a nice day, bfickler.

Is changing my username supposed to be insulting somehow?  I'm looking around here (figuratively), and I am pretty sure we aren't in 5th grade.

I don't care that you made/make money playing poker.  It doesn't change the arguments at all.  Gambling is a waste of time, like pro sports.  Everything about both of them could fall off the face of the earth and humanity would suffer not one iota of loss.  

toiyabe
Julio_Ajedrez wrote:
Fixing_A_Hole hat geschrieben:
 

1) Thinks poker "theory" is even remotely close to chess theory in logic.

 

 

 

where did i state such a thing? also, what exactly is chess theory in logic? :D

you know, couple years ago when i was taking logic courses at university, we learnt a lot of things. I even have a principia mathematica on my shelf. but we we're never educated about "chess theory in logic". 

the only thing where logic plays a role in chess is when the engine is operating with 0 and 1s, and those things are well explored for quite some time now, meaning an engine knows how to operate 0 and 1s in order to play great chess. with poker on the other hand, not so much...

So now you're going to play semantics?  Are you seriously denying that logic exists in chess?  Do you know what logic means?  I'll leave you with a quote by someone who was far more brilliant than both of us combined.

"Chess is the art which expresses the science of logic."   -Granddaddy Botvinnik   

DiogenesDue
Julio_Ajedrez wrote:

same thing you can say about chess.

and arts.

thing is, humans need these things to fully use their potential.

Not at all.  You fail to see the distinction.  I said pro sports, and gambling.  Remove the money from the equation (by going to watch your local high school sports or what have you...or better yet, playing sports yourself), and these endeavors have value.  Add money, and they are just unethical time sinks used to rob people of their earnings.

Art and chess (or any game that does not have a gambling element attached) do indeed display things about human potential.  Card games and sports do, also.  The money factor adds nothing of value in terms of human growth or potential...quite the opposite.

Scottrf
btickler wrote:
Julio_Ajedrez wrote:
btickler hat geschrieben:
Long_Hair_Dont_Care wrote:

Ivey has been and is a top notch poker player. But he's not even arguably the best IMO when stacked up against people like Brunsen, Hellmuth, Chan, and possibly even Negreanu. Having said all this he probably stands no chance in chess against Magnus. Magnus would probably win a few hands as is normal in cards but he would be getting outplayed 99% of the time at the table.

Ermm...a 6 yeal old could win more than 1/100 hands against Phil Ivey, or any Poker player ever conceived ;).  

watch videos on youtube on who's the best poker player today. "Brunsen", Hellmuth (well, he's an exception at this, but only because he's an egomaniac), Chan and Negreanu will all give you the same answer, it's always Ivey.

really anybody at the top today thinks Ivey is #1, the question is rather who is nr # 2.

 

and to the guy stating that hellmuth is good at tourneys but sucks at cash, and then stating negreanu might be the best.... just lol. you do realize that negreanu sucks just as much at cash as hellmugh, but not having won anywhere as many bracelets in tourneys?

please, stop posting on matters you have no idea about.

You're not getting the point.  It doesn't matter which poker player it is.  You could play *nobody* against Phil Ivey (deal the cards and have a blackjack-style rule about which bets to call) and the "nobody" side would still win at least a dozen hands out of a hundred.

For anyone to say that a poker player, any poker player, can win 99% of hands played against a minimally reasonable level of competition is just a ridiculous statement. 

So what? Just because you are winning near to the same amount doesn't mean you're near to the same standard. The top few percent is all of the quality. The nature of the game means the better player wont win loads more, it doesn't mean he isn't much more skilled.

You just don't realise the knowledge it takes to be a top player. You can't get near that in a few weeks.

DiogenesDue
Julio_Ajedrez wrote:

you want to go the ethic road now?

how is it unethical to rob off people in a game that the other chose freely to participate in? you know, most of these earnings you mention are only so high because they are so low somewhere else.if somebody can do a certain job in the USA or middle europe for x dollars, and another guy doing the same thing for x/50 dollars in bangladesh, how is that not robbing the guy from bangladesh? and now, add in that the bangladesh brother did not choose his position freely, did not participate in this "game" freely, and i think you can see just how ridicoulous that argument is. 

which does not mean that i don't agree with you up to some point. it really does not generate any value to win money at poker. but there might be value in the beauty behind the game for those appreciating it, just like in chess or sports. seems like we actually totally agree on this. And obviously money is an essential part of poker, so poker could no exist in an utopical world where everybody does everything just for it's mere value. It is also the number 1 reason for most people including myself to eventually quit. To rather find something you do for it's own value than money. Because mentally it is almost impossible to seperate these things in poker.

"Freely participating in" is the same argument/justification for slot machines.  Intentionally preying on humanity's greed (or other vices/failings) is ultimately unethical.  I'm not sure why you would assume I am on the other side of the Bangladesh example...the existence of the "3rd world" is also unethical, on a global scale.  The person making less in Bangladesh is being robbed, assuming equal skill and effort put in.  

Luckily, the Internet is helping to level that playing field, and money will continue to flow from rich to poor nations until something much closer to equilibrium is reached.

DiogenesDue
Scottrf wrote:
btickler wrote:
Julio_Ajedrez wrote:
btickler hat geschrieben:
Long_Hair_Dont_Care wrote:

Ivey has been and is a top notch poker player. But he's not even arguably the best IMO when stacked up against people like Brunsen, Hellmuth, Chan, and possibly even Negreanu. Having said all this he probably stands no chance in chess against Magnus. Magnus would probably win a few hands as is normal in cards but he would be getting outplayed 99% of the time at the table.

Ermm...a 6 yeal old could win more than 1/100 hands against Phil Ivey, or any Poker player ever conceived ;).  

watch videos on youtube on who's the best poker player today. "Brunsen", Hellmuth (well, he's an exception at this, but only because he's an egomaniac), Chan and Negreanu will all give you the same answer, it's always Ivey.

really anybody at the top today thinks Ivey is #1, the question is rather who is nr # 2.

 

and to the guy stating that hellmuth is good at tourneys but sucks at cash, and then stating negreanu might be the best.... just lol. you do realize that negreanu sucks just as much at cash as hellmugh, but not having won anywhere as many bracelets in tourneys?

please, stop posting on matters you have no idea about.

You're not getting the point.  It doesn't matter which poker player it is.  You could play *nobody* against Phil Ivey (deal the cards and have a blackjack-style rule about which bets to call) and the "nobody" side would still win at least a dozen hands out of a hundred.

For anyone to say that a poker player, any poker player, can win 99% of hands played against a minimally reasonable level of competition is just a ridiculous statement. 

So what? Just because you are winning near to the same amount doesn't mean you're near to the same standard. The top few percent is all of the quality. The nature of the game means the better player wont win loads more, it doesn't mean he isn't much more skilled.

You just don't realise the knowledge it takes to be a top player. You can't get near that in a few weeks.

What I know is that the "80/20" curve of poker is lot kinder than chess' curve...and that, coupled with the luck factor, means that where a "really amazing" chess player (say, top 1% by rating) has zero chances against Carlsen, a "really amazing" poker player (top 1% by earnings, I guess that would be the only imperfect measure) can have a fairly decent shot at taking one heads up match against against Ivey (or anyone else; such is the nature of poker...in fact, the very idea of being able to determine who is the "best" in poker with an accuracy that reflects chess ratings seems silly, because the game is just inherently that unpredictable (not to be confused with complexity ;)...).

DiogenesDue

And I'd rather tell the guy playing it that he's an idiot for playing it than telling him that the guy offering it is ethically wrong.

We agree on this.  Unfortunately, history has shown that human beings will not do what's in their best interests even when they understand what those things are.  So, people will do it anyway, and it's still unethical in the end to prey on those weaknesses knowingly.

Scottrf
btickler wrote:

What I know is that the "80/20" curve of poker is lot kinder than chess' curve...and that, coupled with the luck factor, means that where a "really amazing" chess player (say, top 1% by rating) has zero chances against Carlsen, a "really amazing" poker player (top 1% by earnings, I guess that would be the only imperfect measure) can have a fairly decent shot at taking one heads up match against against Ivey (or anyone else; such is the nature of poker...in fact, the very idea of being able to determine who is the "best" in poker with an accuracy that reflects chess ratings seems silly, because the game is just inherently that unpredictable (not to be confused with complexity ;)...).

And you're confusing that with poker being less skilled/easier to learn. It's not the same thing.

DiogenesDue
Julio_Ajedrez wrote:

while you seem to be more informed on the issue than i first thought, i still strongly disagree.

first, there is no top poker player in the world today who seriously wants to challenge ivey at live HU. they all just like their money too much. seriously, a top 1% player will have have close to zero chances against ivey just like it is with carlsen. 

second, if "80/20" curve means that 20% are winners in poker, that is wrong aswell. in todays games, it's considerably less, and it's becoming less and less every day. which does not mean that it isn't easier to make money playing poker than playing chess. this isn't due to the nature of the games though, but their environment.

I only used 80/20 as a generally accepted shortcut for the notion that in most fields of endeavor, getting to a competent level takes far less time then completely mastering something.  The 80 and 20 values are variable for every such field of endeavor ;).

Look, if someone put a gun to your head and said that to save your family and everything you hold dear, you had to either win a chess game against Magnus Carlsen, or win a head-ups Texas Hold 'Em match with Phil Ivey starting with equal bankrolls, which would you take?  You'd have to take the Ivey option.  Hell, most 2500-ish chess grandmasters that knew poker passably well would probably take the Ivey option...

Pulpofeira

Are you German, Julio?

DiogenesDue
Scottrf wrote:

And you're confusing that with poker being less skilled/easier to learn. It's not the same thing.

Where did I do that, exactly?  You can argue all day that the nuances of the top level of a game take a lifetime to master...but that is not the point, and it doesn't change the fact that it's much easier/faster to get within reasonable striking distance of competing with a top-flight pro poker player than it is to get within reasonable striking distance of a 2750+ chess player.

DiogenesDue
Julio_Ajedrez wrote:

if the match is long enough, say 100'000 hands (which can be done in less than a month online), it doesn't really matter,  it's bye family then.

Sure, and if it were a million hands, even less chance...but it's still an asymptote...approaching Carlsen and never exceeding ;).  And that is the result of the fundamental difference between chess and poker.  You can smooth out the random curve to approximate the certainty of the chess side of the equation, but it takes a lot of hands to get there.

P.S. My cousin runs an ad agency in Barcelona.  I would not confuse one debate with general "open mindedness" about an individual.

Pulpofeira
Julio_Ajedrez escribió:
Pulpofeira hat geschrieben:

Are you German, Julio?

I am half german originally, and quarter austrian quarter yugoslav. But i live in Barcelona for almost 3 years now. Luckily people here seem to be more open minded towards me than you and your friend on these forums.

I'm sure your son would agree with you.

Pulpofeira
Julio_Ajedrez escribió:
Pulpofeira hat geschrieben:
Julio_Ajedrez escribió:
Pulpofeira hat geschrieben:

Are you German, Julio?

I am half german originally, and quarter austrian quarter yugoslav. But i live in Barcelona for almost 3 years now. Luckily people here seem to be more open minded towards me than you and your friend on these forums.

I'm sure your son would agree with you.

no but my son thinks you are an idiot and i must say he's probably right.

That's a start! I'm sure you two will be able to get along well some day.