I can tell you 100% if you are sleepy it is like playing drunk!!! Your Elo will fall like a rock!!
The affect sleep has on chess (from losing to winning)

Yes some of us have learned the hard way that playing chess in the middle of the night is maybe not the brightest idea. Just because you can't sleep doesn't mean you have the alertness to play chess.

I very often play sleepy as I get very little sleep in a 24 hour period.
I have had this game happen 3 times when I was playing 15 minute chess:
[I was Black in all 3 games]

When i get my sleep i am a totally different player than when i feel a little sleepy. Awake i am extremely creative and agressive. Sleepy i am careful and on the passive, calculating and patient.

I very often play sleepy as I get very little sleep in a 24 hour period.
I have had this game happen 3 times when I was playing 15 minute chess:
[I was Black in all 3 games]
I make the worst mistakes when I'm tired... I never lose with dignity.
Check out this snapshot of my recent games. From September 8th to 10th I was suffering from sleep deprivation. I lost 6/7 of my games. After that I started actively trying to fix my sleeping problems including working out multiple times. You can see that then from September 12th to 13th I won 9/9 of my games. I'm not trying to show off, as you can see by my ranking I'm not a very good chess player, but this is just proof how much sleep effects your mental ability... Even if you don't realise it.